* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 30 32 34 33 34 35 38 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 30 32 34 33 34 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 23 23 23 24 26 27 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 11 15 15 12 18 17 18 19 20 14 17 16 27 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 4 -3 0 0 2 1 1 3 2 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 208 225 238 227 234 247 243 244 255 252 253 229 234 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.9 25.9 26.4 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 111 111 113 113 118 124 126 128 129 129 133 142 141 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 104 104 104 105 104 109 115 117 117 115 114 117 123 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 58 56 50 48 47 44 43 39 37 36 39 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 49 44 43 50 47 47 32 15 0 -28 -47 -47 -36 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 9 26 21 24 11 1 -9 10 -16 9 -5 25 7 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -3 -2 0 2 4 5 11 11 8 9 2 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1659 1789 1911 2010 2111 2227 2119 2038 2006 1893 1730 1636 1602 1633 1685 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.9 23.0 24.1 25.2 26.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.9 35.1 36.1 37.2 39.2 41.3 43.5 45.8 48.2 50.2 51.7 52.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 11 8 12 22 11 18 20 20 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 3. 4. 5. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 32.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/16/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.5% 7.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.0% 2.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/16/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 30 32 34 33 34 35 38 18HR AGO 30 29 28 29 28 28 28 28 29 29 31 33 35 34 35 36 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 26 26 26 26 27 27 29 31 33 32 33 34 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 19 19 20 20 22 24 26 25 26 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT