* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052013 08/15/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 49 52 54 54 56 58 60 64 67 72 75 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 49 52 54 54 56 58 60 64 67 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 40 44 47 48 48 47 46 47 51 57 66 76 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 3 3 7 9 9 13 11 8 3 1 3 2 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 1 0 -1 0 2 0 1 0 2 -1 1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 356 338 23 90 121 130 178 185 181 185 188 173 191 79 182 32 293 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.8 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 126 124 119 113 112 111 114 118 123 127 130 130 132 135 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 122 123 121 115 108 106 104 107 111 117 120 124 124 127 130 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 75 72 74 73 72 70 68 63 60 53 50 42 40 34 31 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 54 54 57 60 56 50 34 42 46 44 42 30 23 2 -10 -27 -38 200 MB DIV 67 55 69 57 36 24 14 -19 -22 -15 -23 -12 -18 -4 -14 -5 -14 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -12 -13 -12 -4 -2 0 1 4 2 7 4 9 7 6 9 LAND (KM) 756 887 1020 1160 1300 1570 1810 2037 2045 1901 1745 1606 1494 1389 1169 986 792 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.5 25.8 27.0 28.3 29.6 32.1 34.3 36.4 38.5 40.7 43.0 45.3 47.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 13 12 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 9 11 16 14 18 17 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 24. 26. 28. 30. 34. 37. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 24.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 FIVE 08/15/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.91 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 17.2% 11.1% 7.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 21.6% 11.2% 2.2% 0.9% 7.1% 8.5% 8.3% Bayesian: 2.5% 5.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.8% 4.0% 1.8% Consensus: 4.3% 14.7% 8.2% 3.1% 2.4% 3.0% 4.2% 3.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 FIVE 08/15/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 46 49 52 54 54 56 58 60 64 67 72 75 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 42 45 48 50 50 52 54 56 60 63 68 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 39 42 44 44 46 48 50 54 57 62 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 30 33 35 35 37 39 41 45 48 53 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT