* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 86 81 76 66 54 44 37 33 31 29 29 29 32 35 37 V (KT) LAND 90 90 86 81 76 66 54 44 37 33 31 29 29 29 32 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 85 79 74 65 57 50 45 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 8 10 9 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 0 2 3 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 144 190 211 205 206 258 246 247 235 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.3 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.5 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 110 114 116 123 128 130 130 130 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 58 53 48 47 47 45 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -7 -1 -5 6 18 17 16 9 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 28 29 21 15 0 -24 -36 -22 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 -2 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1695 1598 1500 1402 1305 1079 843 630 505 544 743 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.2 15.7 15.2 14.7 14.2 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.9 140.8 141.8 142.8 145.2 147.9 150.9 153.9 157.0 160.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 15 15 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. -36. -37. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -4. -9. -14. -24. -36. -46. -53. -57. -59. -61. -61. -61. -58. -55. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.2 138.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 459.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##