* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 69 66 63 56 48 39 33 29 27 29 32 34 37 40 43 V (KT) LAND 75 73 69 66 63 56 48 39 33 29 27 29 32 34 37 40 43 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 68 63 59 52 47 42 37 33 31 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 2 5 6 7 10 11 10 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 2 3 -2 -4 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 270 244 169 204 217 223 239 254 278 256 277 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.4 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 112 107 106 110 118 123 127 131 129 134 138 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 66 64 65 62 56 52 51 50 51 51 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -17 -20 -5 0 0 10 4 5 14 16 15 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 18 1 13 24 14 -19 -31 -12 -14 15 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 0 1 4 -1 3 -2 0 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1896 1799 1702 1609 1516 1296 1062 819 625 523 602 825 1077 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.0 16.4 15.8 15.1 14.4 13.8 13.3 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.0 137.9 138.8 139.7 140.6 142.8 145.3 148.1 151.1 154.3 157.5 160.8 164.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 5 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. -22. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -12. -19. -27. -36. -42. -46. -48. -46. -43. -41. -38. -35. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 137.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 7.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/08/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##