* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 71 72 70 66 59 52 47 42 38 36 35 34 35 36 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 71 72 70 66 59 52 47 42 38 36 35 34 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 69 68 64 58 50 43 37 33 30 28 26 24 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 3 2 7 5 9 4 N/A 7 11 7 10 11 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -1 1 -2 1 0 7 N/A 0 1 1 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 11 345 339 267 191 273 177 263 298 N/A 299 312 313 272 270 269 282 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.0 24.7 24.3 25.2 25.4 25.0 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 134 132 128 128 123 110 106 115 117 113 117 122 126 125 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 N/A -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 71 72 68 68 64 60 N/A 48 45 42 43 43 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 LOST 11 10 9 7 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 0 2 2 -12 -7 -2 8 N/A 19 23 10 17 14 25 29 200 MB DIV 84 97 65 50 62 4 30 2 14 N/A 13 4 4 -9 6 2 13 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 0 1 4 7 5 1 N/A 0 2 7 5 4 6 3 LAND (KM) 2223 2228 2237 2258 2283 2193 1990 1794 1583 1376 1161 939 702 466 280 197 352 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.4 17.1 17.5 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.4 131.1 131.9 132.7 134.3 136.1 137.9 139.9 141.9 144.0 146.2 148.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 10. 6. -1. -8. -13. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. -25. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.2 129.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 9.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.4% 44.4% 37.6% 27.4% 18.6% 20.2% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 28.0% 12.1% 9.2% 2.6% 4.8% 1.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.9% 24.9% 17.0% 12.4% 7.1% 8.4% 5.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##