* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 73 77 77 75 70 65 62 57 52 49 47 44 43 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 73 77 77 75 70 65 62 57 52 49 47 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 69 70 69 67 61 54 49 44 40 36 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 7 3 1 4 1 2 5 3 5 7 8 14 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 2 3 5 7 4 5 2 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 36 21 20 11 342 56 359 177 52 90 143 253 305 257 268 264 275 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.3 25.0 24.6 25.4 25.4 25.0 25.4 26.1 25.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 136 136 131 132 126 112 109 117 118 114 118 125 123 127 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 75 73 71 70 69 65 60 55 49 44 43 43 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 18 19 18 18 18 16 14 13 11 9 7 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -7 -12 -10 -22 -17 -11 -5 0 7 18 10 18 18 24 18 200 MB DIV 81 106 103 76 40 41 20 26 5 2 21 11 -13 -12 5 -6 -6 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -5 -1 1 6 7 4 -1 2 -1 5 2 4 4 5 LAND (KM) 2193 2219 2236 2254 2276 2337 2141 1936 1731 1531 1314 1088 837 581 332 144 162 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.5 129.2 129.9 130.7 131.5 133.2 134.9 136.7 138.6 140.5 142.6 144.8 147.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 7 8 11 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 22. 22. 20. 15. 10. 7. 2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.4 128.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 43.8% 31.3% 21.9% 14.8% 28.1% 17.7% 13.2% Logistic: 9.2% 35.3% 15.9% 12.7% 7.9% 11.5% 7.4% 2.5% Bayesian: 4.6% 10.1% 5.6% 2.9% 1.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 29.7% 17.6% 12.5% 8.1% 13.9% 8.4% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##