* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 42 47 51 54 58 59 59 59 59 61 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 42 47 51 54 58 59 59 59 59 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 34 36 39 42 44 47 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 6 6 7 6 7 12 10 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 136 142 136 115 118 62 51 49 72 68 95 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.2 26.9 26.3 26.2 26.7 27.0 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 129 128 131 135 132 126 125 131 134 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 58 57 59 57 57 53 51 51 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 24 24 13 20 6 -2 -18 -22 -23 -11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 36 24 24 22 22 31 55 27 32 19 21 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1820 1760 1702 1643 1585 1447 1298 1157 999 840 694 582 527 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.0 139.7 140.4 141.1 141.8 143.3 144.9 146.4 148.1 150.1 152.1 154.1 156.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 11 12 12 15 15 6 2 1 5 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 29. 29. 29. 29. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 139.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 17.0% 16.7% 12.6% 0.0% 14.3% 13.9% 13.6% Logistic: 3.0% 16.7% 7.8% 5.2% 1.9% 4.0% 0.5% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 11.3% 8.2% 5.9% 0.6% 6.1% 4.8% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##