* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 65 73 76 77 77 75 70 66 62 57 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 65 73 76 77 77 75 70 66 62 57 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 55 58 64 68 69 67 63 57 52 48 44 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 10 8 4 5 9 5 9 9 7 2 6 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 2 1 5 5 8 7 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 45 35 42 39 4 1 11 32 42 57 66 132 318 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 25.4 25.3 25.8 25.5 25.5 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 137 136 141 136 134 131 117 116 121 118 118 117 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 76 74 74 72 72 72 68 65 60 56 54 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 18 19 18 19 19 18 16 15 13 11 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 8 4 1 1 -5 -2 5 8 17 16 21 15 22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 107 96 104 105 99 103 58 62 13 27 26 14 16 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -5 -5 -2 -2 2 3 2 -1 2 1 7 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2151 2192 2234 2276 2305 2369 2302 2097 1896 1702 1490 1250 1032 835 648 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.3 129.0 129.8 130.5 132.1 133.8 135.6 137.4 139.2 141.2 143.5 145.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 8 9 17 11 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 28. 31. 32. 32. 30. 25. 21. 17. 12. 9. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.0 127.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 32.5% 24.5% 18.2% 12.9% 24.4% 36.4% 18.4% Logistic: 6.7% 33.7% 15.2% 10.8% 8.5% 18.2% 24.1% 6.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 5.4% 3.8% 1.4% 0.6% 3.7% 2.9% 0.2% Consensus: 7.1% 23.9% 14.5% 10.1% 7.3% 15.4% 21.2% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##