* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 54 61 66 71 72 73 72 69 67 64 62 62 64 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 54 61 66 71 72 73 72 69 67 64 62 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 47 50 55 60 62 62 61 58 55 52 49 46 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 9 7 8 5 5 1 7 4 7 8 6 0 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -4 -4 -7 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 94 82 62 42 22 5 9 7 47 16 51 77 18 279 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.3 26.8 26.8 26.4 25.0 25.5 25.7 25.3 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 139 136 135 136 131 132 127 113 118 121 117 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 74 73 76 74 73 71 72 66 62 57 54 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 24 18 14 8 2 -7 -18 -9 -7 -1 1 9 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 75 88 91 83 85 63 82 41 54 14 6 -1 -7 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 0 -2 0 2 2 1 5 1 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2057 2116 2176 2226 2277 2333 2393 2251 2047 1838 1641 1447 1220 952 686 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.5 128.2 128.9 129.6 131.0 132.6 134.2 136.0 137.9 139.7 141.5 143.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 10 8 9 11 5 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 26. 31. 32. 33. 32. 29. 27. 24. 22. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 126.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/04/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 24.4% 21.5% 16.0% 11.3% 18.6% 19.1% 18.9% Logistic: 4.1% 28.0% 11.9% 8.1% 8.8% 16.7% 31.1% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.1% Consensus: 5.1% 18.7% 11.7% 8.3% 6.8% 12.3% 17.4% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/04/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##