* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 47 47 47 48 53 55 57 60 62 61 60 58 55 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 47 47 47 48 53 55 57 60 62 61 60 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 41 41 39 37 37 37 39 42 47 51 55 58 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 6 8 7 7 2 6 9 11 8 8 9 14 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 2 3 3 4 0 -1 1 0 4 5 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 222 204 203 203 181 185 172 184 105 110 114 114 91 83 87 70 68 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.5 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 127 130 130 128 134 132 131 132 129 128 130 132 131 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 59 61 63 62 58 57 56 55 54 52 51 49 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 1 3 3 10 17 34 34 42 31 27 17 3 -2 2 -9 200 MB DIV 36 48 41 28 38 37 30 41 47 72 44 67 53 35 40 15 6 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2264 2189 2115 2051 1988 1851 1722 1605 1482 1350 1218 1092 977 877 788 713 668 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.2 13.7 13.3 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.7 135.4 136.1 136.8 138.3 139.8 141.2 142.6 144.1 145.6 147.1 148.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 5 8 4 2 11 16 16 7 4 4 7 9 7 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 16. 15. 13. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.3 133.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 23.8% 21.4% 15.4% 11.5% 17.0% 16.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 10.8% 7.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 11.6% 9.5% 5.9% 4.2% 6.0% 5.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##