* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 50 50 51 51 50 52 57 59 62 65 64 61 60 57 55 V (KT) LAND 50 51 50 50 51 51 50 52 57 59 62 65 64 61 60 57 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 46 45 44 44 47 50 55 60 63 64 64 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 1 5 5 6 7 4 9 6 6 7 7 10 10 12 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 0 -1 4 4 0 -1 0 1 7 7 7 4 2 4 SHEAR DIR 299 226 242 238 159 184 160 130 111 105 86 84 67 80 86 114 67 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 126 129 129 127 131 132 129 129 129 128 128 130 130 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 62 63 66 65 64 56 58 55 54 53 52 50 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 14 14 13 14 15 15 15 16 14 14 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 3 0 10 13 29 49 65 82 76 61 36 33 32 26 19 200 MB DIV 36 46 41 28 27 46 28 43 36 47 64 76 42 25 28 16 -12 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2337 2260 2184 2111 2039 1910 1784 1663 1547 1419 1286 1137 991 869 773 686 637 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.5 14.1 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.0 134.7 135.5 136.2 137.6 139.0 140.4 141.7 143.1 144.6 146.3 148.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 6 8 2 4 15 14 11 4 2 4 6 6 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 2. 7. 9. 12. 15. 14. 11. 10. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.3 133.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 23.9% 21.5% 15.7% 11.1% 16.6% 0.0% 10.0% Logistic: 2.9% 11.4% 7.3% 2.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 11.8% 9.6% 6.2% 4.1% 5.8% 0.0% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##