* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 47 46 46 43 43 46 47 49 51 52 52 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 47 46 46 43 43 46 47 49 51 52 52 54 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 44 41 38 36 33 33 34 36 39 43 46 50 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 1 3 5 7 4 2 6 10 10 7 2 4 6 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 0 0 4 7 5 1 -1 -5 -2 0 2 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 289 294 335 257 266 151 240 125 120 117 132 126 54 46 69 91 26 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.7 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 129 128 129 131 129 134 132 131 132 130 127 129 131 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 69 66 66 70 66 63 59 59 59 59 57 58 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 15 13 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 9 1 -4 7 17 33 58 75 87 73 55 20 10 0 1 200 MB DIV 33 47 71 49 27 42 45 29 21 32 52 34 32 13 26 21 12 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2278 2343 2297 2222 2148 2009 1873 1747 1634 1539 1417 1263 1109 976 868 773 698 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.3 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.2 133.0 133.7 134.5 135.2 136.7 138.2 139.6 140.9 142.0 143.3 145.0 146.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 9 16 17 12 4 3 6 8 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -7. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 132.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 20.9% 19.6% 14.2% 10.1% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 8.5% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 9.8% 8.1% 5.2% 3.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##