* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 85 87 88 88 85 82 81 77 73 69 65 62 59 56 V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 85 87 88 88 85 82 81 77 73 69 65 62 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 79 80 80 80 79 77 73 70 66 62 57 51 48 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 3 7 3 4 7 2 3 1 7 1 4 6 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -4 0 3 1 8 7 12 7 10 4 1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 96 234 116 129 73 9 75 19 73 33 270 277 297 239 238 273 291 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.0 26.4 26.9 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 133 132 132 131 131 130 133 131 130 129 123 127 132 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 61 61 64 62 64 65 66 67 66 61 58 59 60 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 16 18 17 17 18 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -21 -18 -9 -1 -4 -9 -14 -7 15 22 46 37 36 33 36 24 200 MB DIV 25 17 12 20 71 40 45 26 25 38 25 10 1 10 -1 16 8 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1834 1900 1968 2031 2092 2237 2373 2244 2090 1916 1754 1604 1435 1270 1090 912 751 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.7 127.6 128.5 129.4 131.3 133.0 134.3 135.8 137.5 139.1 140.6 142.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 5 4 4 8 9 6 6 4 4 8 2 3 5 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 10. 7. 6. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.4 125.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.4% 27.7% 26.1% 20.0% 15.1% 18.7% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 21.7% 26.7% 21.1% 11.2% 8.1% 2.7% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 18.4% 15.8% 10.4% 7.8% 7.1% 5.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##