* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 70 71 68 65 62 58 58 56 58 56 55 54 51 48 V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 70 71 68 65 62 58 58 56 58 56 55 54 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 68 67 64 59 55 52 48 45 42 40 39 38 35 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 5 4 3 3 3 7 1 4 5 7 6 9 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 0 5 6 10 2 8 5 6 6 9 8 6 1 SHEAR DIR 240 249 251 269 304 273 352 229 299 231 308 201 273 256 247 260 274 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.8 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 135 131 129 129 125 126 128 132 132 127 125 125 132 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 57 56 57 60 63 61 61 60 60 62 61 58 56 58 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 17 16 17 16 18 17 18 17 17 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -20 -19 -13 -13 5 -3 0 -10 7 20 34 45 54 61 58 63 200 MB DIV 35 72 19 -7 -5 58 45 62 15 15 20 58 31 34 24 5 6 700-850 TADV -3 -5 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1639 1707 1779 1847 1915 2029 2160 2289 2223 2070 1909 1729 1527 1309 1102 912 753 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.5 125.5 126.5 127.4 129.2 131.0 132.6 134.3 135.8 137.4 139.2 141.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 6 3 2 2 4 3 7 5 2 1 1 4 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 2. -1. 2. 0. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -12. -14. -12. -14. -15. -16. -19. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.4 123.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 23.6% 23.0% 17.5% 13.3% 16.4% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 14.1% 10.6% 4.9% 2.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 12.7% 11.2% 7.5% 5.4% 5.7% 4.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##