* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 80 82 82 79 77 70 64 59 57 53 50 46 44 41 38 V (KT) LAND 70 76 80 82 82 79 77 70 64 59 57 53 50 46 44 41 38 V (KT) LGEM 70 77 80 80 78 72 66 59 54 49 44 39 35 31 28 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 6 3 2 4 5 11 11 7 6 9 18 19 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 3 7 4 4 4 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 308 304 283 314 278 289 53 303 305 326 319 311 221 259 258 256 251 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.1 26.1 26.7 27.1 26.8 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 139 134 134 132 131 124 124 130 134 131 122 124 124 127 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 58 60 61 65 62 62 60 60 59 56 54 54 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 18 18 18 18 16 16 16 15 13 12 10 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -31 -33 -25 -21 -18 1 -9 -11 -11 -6 -1 5 15 9 13 4 200 MB DIV 21 27 40 39 42 0 58 16 -2 10 3 12 19 16 11 17 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 -2 2 3 2 3 0 1 -2 0 -1 3 3 5 LAND (KM) 1520 1565 1616 1676 1740 1876 1991 2113 2250 2238 2072 1917 1732 1528 1327 1130 938 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.2 123.2 124.2 125.2 127.0 128.8 130.6 132.3 134.1 135.7 137.2 139.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 9 8 5 3 1 1 4 6 4 0 0 1 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 12. 9. 7. -0. -6. -11. -13. -17. -20. -24. -26. -29. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.0 121.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 6.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 389.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.65 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.9% 39.5% 31.4% 24.9% 15.5% 19.3% 14.3% 7.2% Logistic: 17.2% 28.0% 23.7% 16.1% 8.9% 9.5% 2.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 2.8% 4.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.0% 23.9% 18.7% 13.8% 8.2% 9.6% 5.6% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##