* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 07/31/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 70 73 77 78 75 73 63 56 50 45 40 37 35 32 30 V (KT) LAND 60 66 70 73 77 78 75 73 63 56 50 45 40 37 35 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 69 71 71 69 66 62 56 48 42 36 31 28 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 7 4 3 8 2 9 17 19 14 11 15 19 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 0 0 0 6 3 6 2 1 1 0 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 300 312 289 278 297 283 302 353 270 290 313 307 280 260 262 261 268 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.9 26.3 26.7 26.8 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 143 137 134 133 130 127 122 126 130 131 119 120 121 125 120 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 57 58 58 58 60 57 56 54 53 48 48 46 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 18 15 15 14 12 10 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -22 -26 -30 -29 -14 -16 1 -5 5 -1 6 2 14 14 17 4 200 MB DIV 19 37 36 39 34 50 26 51 22 1 -27 -9 -2 13 -5 10 0 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -1 0 0 2 4 4 1 1 -1 -1 0 2 2 5 LAND (KM) 1484 1530 1582 1642 1707 1825 1939 2051 2171 2299 2120 1933 1757 1572 1378 1187 990 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.4 122.5 123.6 124.6 126.4 128.2 129.9 131.6 133.4 135.1 136.9 138.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 15 13 10 8 7 3 2 1 1 3 4 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 17. 18. 15. 13. 3. -4. -10. -15. -20. -23. -25. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.7 120.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 11.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 -5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.7% 56.5% 50.2% 43.6% 24.9% 29.8% 16.7% 10.2% Logistic: 36.2% 49.6% 44.3% 36.6% 15.9% 17.7% 2.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 4.2% 9.9% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 27.7% 38.7% 32.4% 27.1% 13.7% 16.2% 6.3% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##