* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 07/31/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 69 69 68 66 59 55 50 45 41 38 34 31 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 64 69 69 68 66 59 55 50 45 41 38 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 57 59 61 59 57 53 47 42 38 33 28 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 2 6 3 8 7 6 9 16 21 18 15 17 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 5 4 1 1 0 4 5 5 5 1 3 4 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 304 288 298 314 283 271 272 295 330 284 277 301 296 264 258 249 239 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.5 26.3 25.5 25.2 25.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 149 146 142 133 131 129 128 124 123 128 126 118 115 118 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 59 56 58 55 58 58 56 56 51 51 50 50 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 17 19 18 20 20 17 17 16 14 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -34 -28 -25 -24 -17 -10 -3 12 3 15 4 12 8 14 7 9 200 MB DIV 53 35 46 63 52 25 22 42 34 27 0 4 -17 9 14 0 7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 1 -1 1 3 4 5 2 1 1 1 1 5 3 LAND (KM) 1389 1441 1495 1534 1580 1692 1820 1907 2012 2125 2245 2141 1962 1775 1575 1369 1175 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.4 120.5 121.6 122.6 124.6 126.5 128.1 129.8 131.4 133.0 134.8 136.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 20 14 13 8 5 2 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 8. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 24. 23. 21. 14. 10. 5. 0. -4. -7. -11. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.2 118.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.58 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.4% 52.9% 37.6% 25.2% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 25.5% 49.6% 43.9% 31.4% 10.0% 20.9% 5.5% 5.2% Bayesian: 4.2% 20.6% 8.0% 2.4% 1.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 16.7% 41.0% 29.8% 19.7% 8.8% 7.8% 2.1% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##