* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 44 41 38 35 31 29 28 30 32 33 33 33 29 26 V (KT) LAND 50 48 46 44 41 38 35 32 29 29 31 33 34 34 33 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 43 37 38 36 34 33 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 14 13 17 23 26 21 19 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 14 11 9 10 5 5 6 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 298 312 318 304 276 274 273 275 273 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.5 25.7 25.7 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.3 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 120 122 122 137 139 142 145 150 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 39 37 35 33 32 32 33 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 18 15 12 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -4 -2 -7 -18 -16 -30 -42 -58 -65 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -28 -29 -13 6 -11 -15 -19 7 -23 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -15 -15 -14 -11 -14 -11 -8 -8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 564 386 210 54 21 189 314 624 966 1325 1674 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.4 151.1 152.8 154.5 156.1 159.4 162.8 166.1 169.5 173.0 176.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 13 9 13 15 31 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -24. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -21. -22. -20. -18. -17. -17. -17. -21. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.6 149.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/29/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 498.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/29/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##