* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/28/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 52 49 44 39 34 30 28 30 31 32 31 31 30 26 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 52 49 44 39 35 30 28 30 31 32 31 31 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 56 53 44 46 45 45 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 9 12 14 13 16 22 25 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 11 11 13 6 6 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 306 294 283 291 291 276 278 289 284 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.6 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 116 116 116 119 121 136 138 142 144 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 43 44 41 36 36 35 36 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 16 12 9 7 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 -5 1 -4 -21 -12 -33 -42 -56 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -11 -28 -26 -32 3 -11 -4 -18 0 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -15 -7 -5 -10 -10 -11 -8 -10 -8 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 920 742 566 396 230 12 166 275 601 948 1285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.0 147.7 149.4 151.0 152.7 156.0 159.3 162.5 165.9 169.3 172.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 8 12 15 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -21. -24. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. -27. -25. -24. -23. -24. -24. -25. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.7 146.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 452.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##