* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 55 50 45 41 38 35 33 35 36 37 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 55 50 45 41 34 35 33 35 36 37 38 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 55 54 52 47 44 42 36 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 5 9 7 15 14 11 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 1 2 0 1 2 7 8 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 259 268 230 227 259 246 290 283 261 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.7 25.2 25.2 24.6 24.5 25.0 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 112 117 117 111 110 115 119 127 136 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 59 56 50 44 42 38 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 19 17 16 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 3 1 -3 2 -4 -15 -24 -22 -27 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 28 8 -5 -8 -13 -25 -22 -16 12 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -5 -2 0 -5 0 -3 -6 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1925 1750 1575 1403 1231 891 564 240 -33 152 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.7 138.3 139.9 141.5 143.1 146.3 149.4 152.5 155.6 158.6 161.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -20. -19. -18. -17. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.2 136.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 6.8% 2.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 10.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##