* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 51 48 45 40 36 32 30 31 33 34 35 35 34 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 51 48 45 40 36 33 31 32 34 35 36 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 50 48 44 41 39 37 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 9 10 15 12 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 3 1 0 -1 -2 3 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 226 222 231 208 241 233 262 300 281 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.2 24.4 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.9 25.1 25.8 26.6 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 117 109 112 110 109 114 116 123 131 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 58 57 53 46 43 41 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 20 19 17 15 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 12 12 8 9 -11 -13 -21 -19 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 71 33 4 3 -14 -7 -36 -27 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -5 -4 0 -2 0 0 -4 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2121 1941 1760 1582 1403 1071 733 407 93 92 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.9 136.5 138.2 139.9 141.5 144.6 147.8 150.9 153.9 156.9 159.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 16 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -20. -19. -17. -16. -15. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.8 134.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 9.0% 3.8% 3.1% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 10.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##