* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 38 39 40 43 44 44 44 45 46 46 50 52 55 58 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 38 39 40 43 44 44 44 45 46 46 50 44 36 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 35 34 33 33 33 33 33 35 38 37 33 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 14 12 19 15 18 19 22 16 21 13 15 9 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 -2 -4 -5 -4 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 232 242 258 262 247 245 250 229 230 241 275 282 319 305 351 336 13 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.5 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.9 27.5 27.7 28.1 29.2 29.4 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 127 131 133 142 143 138 133 136 131 133 138 155 158 167 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 126 130 132 141 138 133 126 129 123 123 126 141 143 151 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 44 42 43 44 45 43 45 44 46 47 51 50 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 4 5 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 13 11 4 0 -7 -19 -25 -36 -40 -31 -24 -35 -45 -54 -57 -56 -57 200 MB DIV 41 14 -1 0 -4 9 21 8 12 -2 0 -19 5 -14 -11 7 -12 700-850 TADV 28 12 2 2 2 -1 -5 -2 -8 -7 -8 -3 -4 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1634 1561 1500 1392 1251 963 606 317 178 102 89 92 51 6 -14 -10 83 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.8 46.8 48.8 50.7 52.7 56.6 60.1 63.2 66.2 69.0 71.6 74.1 76.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 18 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 7 13 9 10 26 22 24 15 31 29 22 20 33 39 52 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 24. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -18. -21. -20. -22. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 10. 12. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 44.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.54 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.3% 6.4% 4.8% 4.1% 6.8% 7.2% 8.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.6% 2.4% 1.7% 1.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 38 38 39 40 43 44 44 44 45 46 46 50 44 36 42 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 40 41 44 45 45 45 46 47 47 51 45 37 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 38 41 42 42 42 43 44 44 48 42 34 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 35 36 36 36 37 38 38 42 36 28 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT