* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 48 45 43 39 36 33 31 30 29 29 31 32 33 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 48 45 43 39 36 33 28 30 30 29 31 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 47 46 43 39 36 35 33 29 31 30 29 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 4 10 9 13 11 19 22 25 24 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 7 3 0 -3 -5 -1 0 1 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 259 207 212 228 226 230 247 257 265 260 267 255 264 276 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.3 25.7 24.6 24.7 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.5 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 123 111 112 109 112 115 119 127 133 137 135 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 63 62 58 52 48 44 41 44 45 47 45 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 22 22 20 19 16 15 13 11 10 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 32 36 32 21 17 -6 -16 -36 -38 -52 -57 -71 -52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 72 79 100 50 6 -21 -6 -18 -2 -3 17 -17 -15 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 -3 0 4 3 6 0 1 1 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2147 2259 2147 1963 1779 1420 1097 780 483 220 -29 158 176 359 625 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.4 133.0 134.7 136.4 138.1 141.4 144.4 147.4 150.2 152.7 155.3 158.1 160.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 15 14 14 13 12 13 13 13 14 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 12 7 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 131.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 10.4% 5.3% 3.8% 0.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 11.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##