* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 47 50 51 49 46 42 37 33 32 28 26 24 21 19 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 47 50 51 49 46 42 37 33 32 28 26 24 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 42 42 39 35 32 30 28 26 25 23 22 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 8 11 13 11 15 14 17 15 17 18 22 23 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -1 0 0 3 -4 -3 -5 -2 -1 -4 -2 -3 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 318 292 290 269 247 258 225 252 255 267 266 289 273 275 278 287 273 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.3 26.0 26.2 24.9 23.7 24.2 24.5 23.9 24.2 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.7 26.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 128 126 128 114 101 106 108 102 105 111 114 117 121 127 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 64 63 61 64 64 64 60 56 53 51 48 48 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 17 16 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 27 35 35 21 12 -6 -12 -26 -19 -40 -37 -44 -53 -55 -51 200 MB DIV 62 59 61 77 105 51 50 16 2 2 0 4 -11 4 -11 -1 -16 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -4 -1 -1 2 2 0 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1552 1637 1732 1813 1904 2094 2048 1748 1485 1255 1028 823 602 356 145 4 111 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.7 126.1 127.7 129.3 132.4 135.3 138.1 140.6 142.8 145.0 147.0 149.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 14. 11. 7. 2. -2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 123.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 34.4% 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 39.4% 59.7% 40.4% 33.3% 20.8% 21.8% 4.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.0% 32.0% 21.7% 11.2% 7.0% 7.3% 1.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##