* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 42 44 47 52 56 57 59 61 63 66 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 42 40 43 48 52 53 55 57 59 62 63 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 39 33 36 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 32 30 20 21 13 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -4 0 -1 -2 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 281 282 290 281 289 17 339 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.3 28.8 28.1 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 145 149 154 155 142 149 139 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 145 148 150 149 132 136 124 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 61 63 64 67 66 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 5 -24 -25 -57 -44 -14 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 64 48 37 37 26 54 22 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 179 100 11 44 58 16 30 64 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.4 18.3 19.4 20.5 22.9 25.4 27.9 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.0 74.7 76.4 77.5 78.7 79.8 80.0 79.8 79.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 17 15 14 13 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 35 43 53 42 26 24 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 17. 19. 21. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 42 42 40 43 48 52 53 55 57 59 62 63 64 64 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 40 38 41 46 50 51 53 55 57 60 61 62 62 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 35 38 43 47 48 50 52 54 57 58 59 59 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 28 31 36 40 41 43 45 47 50 51 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT