* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/09/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 59 58 55 52 49 48 46 48 49 51 53 53 53 51 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 59 58 45 42 39 38 36 38 39 41 43 38 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 60 46 42 38 35 34 34 37 42 48 53 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 25 25 35 31 32 24 25 8 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 4 6 6 2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 277 269 264 256 264 277 292 297 305 317 343 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 26.4 28.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 146 142 140 137 129 127 129 128 131 133 133 137 117 142 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 146 142 138 130 118 114 112 110 112 112 114 117 100 122 111 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 13 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 54 56 58 60 60 64 64 65 63 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 9 0 -8 -3 -36 -70 -108 -93 -56 -47 -65 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 33 33 53 72 62 51 6 40 35 28 -8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 12 19 10 14 5 -2 12 1 0 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 456 283 144 79 0 33 164 282 363 323 263 217 180 101 -2 -32 -42 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.3 20.2 22.0 23.6 24.9 25.9 26.7 27.2 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.7 64.8 66.8 68.4 70.0 72.6 74.3 75.5 76.3 76.9 77.4 77.9 78.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 19 17 16 14 11 9 6 5 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 21 22 19 21 37 14 11 15 14 18 20 19 16 0 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 25 CX,CY: -22/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -16. -14. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.8 62.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 16.7% 10.3% 7.5% 6.7% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 4.7% 2.1% 1.3% 0.7% 2.0% 2.4% 1.7% Bayesian: 6.5% 7.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 9.5% 4.7% 3.0% 2.5% 3.7% 0.8% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 59 59 58 45 42 39 38 36 38 39 41 43 38 31 29 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 54 41 38 35 34 32 34 35 37 39 34 27 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 37 34 31 30 28 30 31 33 35 30 23 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 31 28 25 24 22 24 25 27 29 24 17 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT