* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 46 46 47 44 43 46 49 53 57 63 63 63 62 62 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 46 46 47 38 37 40 43 47 51 57 57 57 56 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 48 47 46 38 34 33 33 36 41 48 57 64 70 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 20 23 26 18 25 25 27 12 14 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 0 0 11 8 1 0 1 -5 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 303 301 289 285 257 266 266 281 258 278 264 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 148 146 145 141 138 131 129 128 127 131 130 136 134 125 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 148 146 145 140 132 121 116 112 111 112 110 115 114 106 113 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 53 54 55 53 57 54 60 64 68 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 10 10 10 7 6 8 9 10 11 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 5 5 -3 1 -33 -60 -94 -74 -52 -28 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 31 46 51 46 78 67 45 8 26 31 36 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 3 5 2 5 21 16 5 16 7 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 465 366 429 361 189 33 14 142 253 359 332 264 239 188 127 21 -125 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.5 16.3 18.1 19.9 21.7 23.3 24.8 26.0 27.1 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.3 59.5 61.7 63.8 65.9 69.5 72.2 74.1 75.4 76.2 76.8 77.4 78.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 22 22 21 17 14 12 9 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 39 25 21 20 34 16 11 14 12 16 15 18 14 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. -1. -2. 1. 4. 8. 12. 18. 18. 18. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.9 57.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.24 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.1% 7.7% 5.3% 4.5% 7.2% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 2.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.2% 3.1% 1.9% 1.6% 2.7% 3.1% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 46 46 47 38 37 40 43 47 51 57 57 57 56 37 18HR AGO 45 44 45 44 44 45 36 35 38 41 45 49 55 55 55 54 35 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 41 32 31 34 37 41 45 51 51 51 50 31 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 27 26 29 32 36 40 46 46 46 45 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT