* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 49 48 46 41 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 49 48 46 41 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 46 44 41 36 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 6 12 12 8 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 4 16 77 148 131 142 160 135 167 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.1 25.8 24.8 24.3 23.0 22.5 21.2 20.6 20.7 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 135 121 111 106 92 86 72 65 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 70 69 67 67 61 62 57 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 20 16 18 23 11 2 7 9 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 32 15 4 11 46 32 14 -13 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -11 -6 -9 -6 -1 0 0 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 213 292 213 139 121 185 245 327 388 484 578 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.2 23.2 24.1 24.8 25.2 25.2 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.5 109.3 110.1 110.9 112.8 114.6 116.2 117.6 118.9 120.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -24. -28. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -9. -14. -22. -30. -38. -44. -49. -53. -55. -58. -59. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.0 107.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##