* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 69 68 64 58 50 43 36 31 26 22 20 19 17 15 V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 69 68 64 58 50 43 36 31 26 22 20 19 17 15 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 68 67 63 55 46 37 29 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 5 3 10 7 1 3 5 7 6 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 7 0 -1 2 2 4 -1 0 0 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 88 125 34 38 94 86 80 84 99 143 184 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.8 25.6 24.2 22.8 22.3 21.9 21.6 21.2 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 149 143 142 119 104 90 85 80 77 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 72 70 67 65 65 63 60 57 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 62 63 45 35 22 17 18 3 -8 -6 3 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 85 33 14 33 20 -3 -4 -3 -4 0 2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -9 0 -2 -9 -13 -12 -8 -3 0 2 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 138 111 114 141 189 196 121 203 263 381 475 616 764 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.2 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.4 24.8 24.8 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.4 106.0 106.8 107.5 109.2 110.9 112.7 114.6 116.5 118.4 120.2 121.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 11 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -25. -30. -33. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -20. -27. -34. -39. -44. -48. -50. -51. -53. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.8 104.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 24.9% 22.8% 17.5% 13.0% 15.2% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 6.7% 3.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 11.2% 9.0% 6.4% 4.4% 5.3% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##