* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 49 53 55 55 56 59 60 61 56 57 58 59 61 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 49 53 55 55 56 59 60 61 56 57 58 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 46 48 49 50 49 48 48 49 49 47 45 43 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 10 10 12 14 11 8 7 1 3 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 160 130 134 141 120 136 101 115 114 76 93 166 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.5 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.5 25.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 143 139 132 130 124 118 116 120 122 123 122 117 117 109 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 7 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 60 61 63 62 62 62 64 61 65 62 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 14 19 26 29 37 42 60 50 56 62 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 27 16 10 38 -24 21 0 13 2 11 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -3 -1 -4 2 4 4 1 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 214 198 192 172 169 206 252 308 365 423 427 454 512 614 729 816 922 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.7 105.2 105.7 106.2 107.0 107.6 108.3 108.9 109.7 110.6 111.6 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 17 14 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 13. 15. 15. 16. 19. 20. 21. 16. 17. 18. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 104.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 22.1% 20.8% 15.7% 11.3% 15.9% 14.2% 13.2% Logistic: 7.5% 11.3% 8.4% 2.8% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 13.0% 9.9% 6.3% 5.1% 6.3% 5.4% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##