* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 06/30/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 48 51 55 54 59 60 60 61 61 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 48 51 55 54 59 60 60 61 61 61 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 47 47 47 48 47 47 46 45 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 9 9 10 12 8 9 5 6 6 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 0 1 -3 0 -1 -2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 172 142 145 125 108 115 100 107 104 122 69 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.5 27.0 26.3 25.4 25.3 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.0 25.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 147 147 148 145 137 132 124 114 114 118 119 119 113 113 101 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 64 61 62 59 61 60 58 63 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 11 9 12 12 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 13 18 15 12 24 29 36 45 59 57 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 49 54 49 12 22 -2 18 -10 26 27 15 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 4 2 0 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 324 259 207 183 162 152 173 228 293 372 389 392 432 530 665 781 931 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.5 103.8 104.2 104.5 105.4 106.4 107.4 108.3 109.1 109.9 111.0 112.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 5 5 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 21 21 20 16 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -3. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 20. 19. 24. 25. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 103.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 06/30/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 24.4% 22.1% 16.6% 12.0% 17.9% 16.0% 14.8% Logistic: 12.7% 27.1% 21.5% 9.0% 13.3% 10.3% 12.2% 10.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 29.0% 7.6% 2.1% 2.6% 6.6% 2.9% 0.3% Consensus: 8.8% 26.9% 17.1% 9.2% 9.3% 11.6% 10.3% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 06/30/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##