* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 29 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 29 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 36 32 28 23 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 3 3 5 3 3 6 11 12 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 5 7 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 151 150 176 93 119 255 293 306 265 299 294 300 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.5 21.4 20.9 20.9 21.5 20.7 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.6 22.4 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 88 77 72 72 77 69 76 81 85 87 85 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 69 66 63 63 58 58 52 49 45 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 19 18 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 105 106 94 81 67 59 41 41 26 26 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 0 -9 -14 -13 1 -9 -9 -6 -15 -19 7 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 -1 4 4 3 2 3 5 4 7 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 846 932 1013 1081 1163 1373 1597 1809 1952 1951 1766 1612 1459 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.6 120.0 121.4 122.8 124.2 126.9 129.5 132.0 134.2 136.2 138.0 139.5 141.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -13. -13. -14. -17. -21. -26. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -21. -28. -34. -40. -45. -49. -52. -55. -58. -60. -60. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.9 118.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##