* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 34 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 34 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 30 26 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 4 3 4 3 6 7 12 11 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 0 5 7 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 114 141 134 168 168 228 305 306 292 299 298 292 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.2 22.6 21.7 20.8 21.2 21.3 21.0 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 96 89 80 70 75 75 72 75 80 83 86 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 74 72 68 67 60 60 55 56 49 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 21 20 18 15 13 12 10 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 123 112 107 108 90 64 59 43 41 27 22 17 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 25 13 -3 -16 -7 1 -14 -7 -11 -1 0 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 9 1 1 3 1 5 5 10 5 8 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 771 830 909 996 1056 1233 1457 1695 1861 1972 1951 1766 1591 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.7 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.4 119.7 121.1 122.4 125.2 127.9 130.5 132.7 134.5 136.2 138.0 139.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -22. -23. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -23. -31. -36. -41. -47. -50. -53. -56. -58. -60. -60. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##