* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 75 69 55 40 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 75 69 55 40 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 75 70 64 49 37 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 12 10 6 6 3 6 10 11 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 2 4 1 6 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 93 80 98 87 138 124 186 331 335 338 319 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.0 25.0 24.8 24.0 22.1 21.4 21.8 21.3 21.0 21.4 22.0 22.7 22.2 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 124 114 112 104 84 77 81 75 72 76 82 89 84 88 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -50.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 80 81 74 75 71 64 64 57 56 55 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 29 27 25 23 19 16 14 13 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 105 121 137 140 117 91 70 68 52 46 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 70 70 65 54 12 -26 -31 -10 -7 1 -16 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -1 0 2 4 2 7 4 9 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 637 668 721 769 810 970 1130 1317 1524 1719 1892 2039 1824 1598 1362 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 114.0 115.2 116.5 117.7 120.4 123.1 125.9 128.4 130.6 132.9 135.1 137.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -16. -22. -28. -33. -38. -42. -46. -50. -55. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -20. -22. -24. -24. -24. -22. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. -0. -6. -20. -35. -48. -59. -67. -73. -77. -81. -81. -81. -81. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.8 112.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 4.4% 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 9.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##