* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/25/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 71 69 60 50 38 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 71 69 60 50 38 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 65 65 60 51 41 33 27 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 13 11 12 16 10 7 4 7 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 4 7 4 4 1 4 0 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 80 99 108 82 83 93 124 99 34 52 51 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.5 26.4 25.0 23.3 22.3 22.1 22.5 21.9 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.0 22.5 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 147 140 128 114 96 86 84 88 81 77 82 88 92 87 90 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.2 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 86 83 83 82 79 76 70 67 60 58 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 27 29 29 28 23 21 18 15 13 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 59 77 89 110 158 161 131 118 97 94 80 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 113 103 107 78 55 35 -11 -1 -1 -8 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -1 1 -2 -4 2 2 2 8 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 539 611 648 649 676 801 899 1062 1207 1387 1588 1812 2018 1985 1767 1559 1351 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.9 110.1 111.3 112.5 113.7 116.1 118.6 121.1 123.6 126.1 128.6 131.1 133.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -19. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -4. -8. -13. -15. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 16. 14. 5. -5. -17. -27. -34. -40. -45. -48. -48. -50. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.3 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 39.7% 26.1% 19.5% 13.6% 18.5% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 12.2% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 17.5% 10.2% 7.0% 4.7% 6.3% 4.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##