* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 59 67 77 84 94 89 80 60 45 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 59 67 77 84 94 89 80 60 45 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 72 78 84 77 64 49 38 30 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 9 13 13 13 17 12 8 11 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -1 6 -1 8 2 3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 33 18 81 104 103 92 86 110 78 53 48 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.8 28.3 26.7 25.3 23.5 22.2 22.2 22.5 22.4 21.5 21.5 22.4 23.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 159 154 148 131 117 99 85 85 87 86 77 77 85 94 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 89 86 86 86 85 82 80 75 69 64 60 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 25 26 29 25 25 21 18 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 57 62 73 89 120 153 151 129 106 89 88 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 149 159 152 146 127 102 32 24 8 -6 -4 -9 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -3 -7 -1 0 -1 2 0 1 7 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 521 541 575 641 711 712 813 916 1089 1253 1433 1621 1834 2054 2027 1892 1756 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.7 108.8 110.0 111.2 113.5 115.9 118.5 121.2 123.9 126.4 128.7 131.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 54 39 24 16 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 27. 34. 44. 39. 30. 10. -5. -18. -28. -38. -42. -45. -46. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 106.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/24/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 15.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 11.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.93 16.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 12.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 9.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -36.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.95 -13.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 84% is 6.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.4% 84.4% 72.3% 63.3% 45.7% 62.4% 31.8% 12.4% Logistic: 40.2% 68.7% 46.2% 34.7% 17.3% 20.7% 4.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 39.9% 48.2% 51.8% 33.2% 7.7% 20.5% 2.2% 0.0% Consensus: 43.5% 67.1% 56.8% 43.7% 23.6% 34.5% 12.8% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/24/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##