* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032013 06/24/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 49 59 74 84 83 75 61 50 39 31 26 23 20 17 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 49 59 74 84 83 75 61 50 39 31 26 23 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 36 40 49 58 62 57 48 39 31 25 22 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 11 18 13 12 10 14 12 14 9 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -5 0 -3 0 0 5 2 9 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 21 21 37 23 12 82 64 58 48 62 54 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 28.7 27.8 26.3 25.0 22.5 22.1 21.9 22.5 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 161 164 165 152 143 127 114 88 84 81 87 82 83 84 91 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.7 -50.2 -51.1 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 -51.0 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 87 87 88 90 88 87 85 80 79 73 69 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 19 22 26 29 29 28 24 22 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 44 58 65 83 116 123 158 129 127 100 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 148 124 129 166 192 131 85 51 34 -5 0 -44 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -7 -8 -8 -2 2 -3 -10 -4 3 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 648 602 567 547 537 603 682 713 814 915 1091 1251 1437 1635 1832 2036 1996 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.0 16.1 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.1 20.4 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.7 105.3 106.3 107.2 109.5 111.8 114.0 116.5 119.1 121.7 124.3 126.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 12 12 11 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 51 58 60 46 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 69.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 23. 22. 19. 17. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 17. 17. 12. 8. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 29. 44. 54. 53. 45. 31. 20. 9. 1. -4. -7. -10. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 104.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 THREE 06/24/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 9.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 151.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.96 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -38.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.95 -6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 47.5% 28.0% 19.4% 0.0% 32.8% 34.7% 22.7% Logistic: 7.3% 50.3% 26.2% 17.1% 9.0% 47.0% 45.2% 6.3% Bayesian: 2.2% 17.9% 13.6% 4.6% 1.4% 22.7% 8.3% 2.3% Consensus: 7.1% 38.6% 22.6% 13.7% 3.5% 34.2% 29.4% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 THREE 06/24/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##