* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032013 06/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 53 66 79 80 74 58 47 35 26 22 19 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 53 66 79 80 74 58 47 35 26 22 19 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 43 50 54 50 42 34 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 11 17 12 12 17 25 14 14 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 1 -5 -4 -1 0 -4 9 5 9 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 322 360 25 37 33 72 80 58 68 88 94 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.7 28.3 27.2 25.4 23.8 22.5 22.1 22.0 22.5 21.6 22.1 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 157 161 165 163 148 137 118 101 88 83 82 87 78 83 87 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 87 88 89 89 90 88 87 83 79 75 71 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 18 18 20 23 26 32 33 31 25 23 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 23 36 48 75 105 134 163 155 138 111 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 149 142 155 173 169 130 51 55 11 -23 -11 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -6 -3 -5 -4 -5 -9 -14 -4 0 -5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 668 647 621 572 541 548 671 682 767 867 1012 1174 1322 1498 1694 1917 2090 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.4 14.1 15.5 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 103.9 104.3 105.1 105.9 108.2 110.6 112.9 115.3 117.8 120.3 122.8 125.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 41 44 48 57 62 28 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 24. 25. 24. 21. 19. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 17. 22. 23. 15. 11. 5. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 23. 36. 49. 50. 44. 28. 17. 5. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 103.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 THREE 06/23/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.94 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -46.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.96 -5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.47 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 28.3% 24.3% 18.1% 0.0% 26.1% 25.9% 18.6% Logistic: 1.5% 14.4% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8% 10.8% 35.1% 4.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 6.8% 6.4% 0.9% 0.4% 1.7% 6.9% 4.9% Consensus: 4.5% 16.5% 12.0% 7.1% 0.4% 12.9% 22.7% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 THREE 06/23/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##