* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022013 06/20/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 46 45 45 45 46 48 48 49 47 46 46 47 49 50 V (KT) LAND 40 43 37 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 38 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 8 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 272 283 263 265 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.1 27.1 26.3 26.1 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 136 123 114 112 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 122 110 102 100 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 12 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 68 66 64 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 6 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 -1 -3 5 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 67 39 10 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -2 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 67 21 -24 -67 -111 -193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.1 96.6 97.1 97.5 98.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 9 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.6 95.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 BARRY 06/20/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.0% 10.6% 7.4% 6.3% 8.9% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 20.5% 12.9% 4.7% 1.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% Consensus: 3.8% 12.3% 7.9% 4.1% 2.6% 4.6% 5.2% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022013 BARRY 06/20/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 BARRY 06/20/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 37 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 33 30 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT