* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 41 43 46 46 40 34 31 29 29 31 31 31 30 28 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 41 43 46 46 40 34 31 29 29 31 31 31 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 33 33 31 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 8 7 14 27 31 21 10 9 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 1 0 5 12 7 11 11 7 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 262 257 220 196 206 254 242 246 248 267 324 345 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 151 147 145 144 138 134 132 132 135 139 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 75 71 68 66 65 63 56 51 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -16 -13 -9 -7 -14 -19 -21 -5 -8 10 8 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 116 111 105 139 130 79 32 26 14 -7 -23 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1254 1270 1292 1316 1344 1358 1403 1484 1574 1671 1750 1831 1925 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.3 113.0 113.7 114.4 115.8 117.2 118.8 120.1 121.3 122.4 123.5 124.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 30 22 17 13 11 10 14 7 5 8 15 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 6. 8. 11. 11. 5. -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.0 111.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/17/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 5.5% 33.7% 19.5% 10.1% 2.1% 9.2% 2.3% 1.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 5.2% 5.4% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012013 ALVIN 05/17/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##