* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 40 45 48 52 52 49 45 43 39 38 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 40 45 48 52 52 49 45 43 39 38 37 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 34 32 31 30 29 26 23 19 18 17 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 15 11 11 12 21 14 16 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 12 10 6 4 3 4 -1 7 5 6 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 258 263 249 252 221 196 241 225 245 248 276 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 155 150 147 145 142 139 132 131 129 129 129 132 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 73 71 69 66 66 65 61 55 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 8 11 13 12 15 14 14 12 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 -7 -10 -8 -8 -12 -8 -10 -8 -9 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 95 94 119 137 156 131 154 109 58 28 30 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 6 2 2 -1 2 2 2 4 7 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1146 1158 1176 1191 1214 1288 1334 1319 1353 1403 1472 1553 1621 1702 1795 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.5 110.3 111.2 112.0 113.6 114.8 116.0 117.3 118.5 119.6 120.7 121.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 34 30 24 15 9 8 6 12 6 3 2 7 14 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 6. 6. 3. 2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. 0. 5. 8. 12. 12. 9. 5. 3. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.4 108.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 20.6% 19.1% 13.9% 10.3% 18.1% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 9.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.2% 2.5% 1.7% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 10.5% 8.1% 5.3% 3.5% 7.0% 6.6% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##