* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/16/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 57 61 65 69 68 66 61 50 46 39 36 33 30 26 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 57 61 65 69 68 66 61 50 46 39 36 33 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 53 54 54 53 53 51 44 36 29 24 20 18 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 10 11 13 10 16 15 17 22 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 11 9 6 2 1 6 10 11 10 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 265 244 260 263 239 204 189 196 193 237 249 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 26.5 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 157 156 148 144 140 140 139 126 120 118 116 115 115 117 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.0 -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 71 71 68 68 66 64 58 57 59 47 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 14 14 17 17 18 17 13 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -15 -10 -3 -7 -5 -5 3 -5 0 3 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 66 97 89 101 89 146 136 144 105 21 47 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 2 1 3 2 5 10 4 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1087 1089 1099 1110 1127 1150 1173 1205 1182 1152 1124 1118 1113 1105 1117 1144 1165 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.3 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.4 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.4 108.2 109.0 109.8 111.3 112.5 113.6 114.6 115.6 116.4 117.1 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 36 31 29 31 33 30 20 14 9 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):286/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 6. 7. 9. 9. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 23. 21. 16. 5. 1. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 8.9 106.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 54.3% 39.5% 26.0% 18.6% 42.2% 49.2% 35.2% Logistic: 34.9% 63.4% 54.0% 41.8% 10.2% 22.5% 5.1% 11.5% Bayesian: 4.9% 53.9% 40.3% 16.6% 1.3% 37.4% 22.9% 1.5% Consensus: 18.5% 57.2% 44.6% 28.1% 10.0% 34.0% 25.7% 16.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##