* ATLC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX TESTS * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * AL05 AL052008 08/04/08 18 UTC * ++++++++ SECTION 1, COPY OF OPERATIONAL RII ++++++++ ** 2008 ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL052008 AL05 08/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 mb RH : 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area of IR TEMP <-30: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.5 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ++++++++ SECTION 2, RII WITH LIGHTNING DATA ++++++++ FOR GOES-R PROVING GROUND AL05 Initial vmax, lat, lon: 40. 28.3 -91.0 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2%, no lightning input, exper. algorithm Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 1%, with lightning input, exper. algorithm Recent Lightning Density History (Strikes/km2-year) Date/Time Inner core (0-100 km) Rainband (300-400 km) 08 0804 18 33.6 1.6 08 0804 12 1.3 0.0 08 0804 06 31.1 0.0 08 0804 00 0.0 2.7 08 0803 18 0.9 4.5 Sample mean: 21.5 14.7 Note: Inner core lightning < sample mean favors RI Rainband lightning > sample mean favors RI ++++++++ SECTION 3, RII WITH TPW, IR PC AND FLUX +++ FOR JHT ** 2008 EXPERIMENTAL(v2) ATLANTIC RE-RUN RII AL052008 AL05 08/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range: -6.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.1 Range: 94.6 to 0.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 Range: 2.2 to -2.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 26.0 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.5 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 173.2 Range:648.0 to 15.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 Range: 25.0 to 110.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%)