Florida Bay Models Coordination Meeting
Science Program for Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems

Date: 15 May

Meeting organizers - for PMC:
    Dave Rudnick (WQ Team)
    Peter Ortner (PST)
    Bill Nuttle (EO)

Agencies represented
    Corps of Engineers (*)
    U.S. Geological Survey (WRD, BRD)
    Everglades National Park (*)
    Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (*)
    Miami-Dade County
    South Florida Water Management District (*)

[* Agency with direct resource management responsibility and need to know effects of changes to water management operations.]

The meeting was called to review prospects for new model applications related to Florida Bay. The overall objective was to find out who is doing what, who would like to do what, and what is going on with the Florida Bay and Florida Keys Feasibility Study.

1) Discuss source of problems with hydrology, circulation and salinity models.
2) Identify requirements of each agency in terms of predicted quantities and practical aspects of model applications.
3) Review modeling approaches for linking Florida Bay salinity with Everglades hydrology.
4) Formulate modeling strategy for the Florida Bay and Florida Keys Feasibility Study.

A representative from each agency summarized the current and near-term modeling activities of the agency either in Florida Bay or in an adjacent area. Objectives of each agency for their modeling efforts were also discussed.

Next, participants discussed the requirements/needs of each of the resource management agencies for predictive models in Florida Bay and adjacent areas. Results of this discussion are summarized in Table 1. Needs are organized into two categories. First is a list of ecosystem attributes or processes to be predicted by the models. Second is a list of model attributes required for the models to be useful management tools. This second category includes the following attributes:

Delivery of model - Time period until agency has need for predictive model(s).

Portable - Refers to ability of the model to be modified (by assigning input files and parameter values) and run by cooperating agency for their own purposes.

Monte Carlo capability - Model must be capable of iteratively rerunning a simulation with randomized inputs to generate multiple realizations so that a probability distribution of model predictions can be generated.

The short-term strategy for modeling in Florida Bay consists of the activities listed below. To a certain extent, these activities simply continue on-going efforts pending the start of work on the Florida Bay and Florida Keys Feasibility Study. This strategy does establish some milestones. These should be reviewed in 4 to 6 months time. In particular, the South Florida Water Management District is conducting a proof-of-concept exercise to evaluate the utility of the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code for modeling hydrodynamics of interior Florida Bay. The Corps of Engineers and the South Florida Water Management District are assembling a work plan for the Feasibility Study. Both of these activities are expected to be completed around mid-September.

Elements of short-term strategy for modeling:
SFWMD - Pursue proof-of-concept implementation of Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC). Result expected in 3 months, i.e. mid-August.

NOAA - Refine Princeton Ocean Model (POM) with goal of improving interaction with inner Florida Bay model.

ENP - Continue collection of critical monitoring data in Bay and on Everglades watershed.

USGS/WRD - Work on hydrologic modeling and related process studies, i.e. groundwater/surface water exchange and vegetative resistance, is on hold pending ENP decision on funding. Planning to extend domain of current SICS/SWIFT2-D model to include ENP south of Tamiami Trail and Shark Slough.

Corps of Engineers - Formulate a scope of work for Florida Bay/Florida Keys Feasibility Study. Form a committee to gather input from Corps, SFWMD, ENP, NOAA. Draft work plan expected by end of September 2000.

PMC - Draft a terms of reference for implementation of a hydrodynamic model in Florida Bay. Circulate for comment (see draft terms of reference attached here as appendix).

Physical Science Team - Available to coordinate review of proof of concept modeling by SFWMD.

Table 1: Objectives for Predictive Models for Everglades and Florida Bay

Needs - Predictions  ENP  FKNMS  SFWMD
Groundwater/Surface water interaction  H   L
Water Levels (non-tidal)    H (for MFL)
Freshwater flows    M
Response to management operations  H H  
Tides      H (in Keys)
Circulation  (physics based)  H  
Residence times      L
Salinity  H
Water quality (other than salinity)  H  
Biological/ecological impacts     H
Needs - Application      
Delivery of model  immediate  2.5 year  2.5 year
Run in-house (portable)  yes  H
Time for model run  24 hours  24 hours  overnight
Length of simulation  30 years  seasonal, interannual  1 year - tides
10 yr - freshflows
Frequency of output  daily, weekly  hourly (for episodic events), 2 week  1 hr - tides
daily - freshflows
Spatial resolution variable, telescope grid    fine scale for Keys passes and NE inflow, coarse elsewhere
Monte Carlo capability    Gulf Stream processes  
Spatial domain  ENP, BIS, Dry Tortugas  SW Shelf and reef tract  

H,L,M - Relative strength of need for comparison within Agency. (High, Medium, Low)

Appendix - Proposed Terms of Reference for Implementation of a Hydrodynamic Model in Florida Bay


Circulation Modeling Terms of Reference

  1. Portability - any FB circulation model developed should be portable in that the code used becomes public domain and is delivered to the PMC for distribution to its member agencies. This implies it is thoroughly documented and not platform specific but usable by any relatively sophisticated physical modeling group. It also implies that it cannot absolutely require parallel processing capability or supercomputer access.

  2. Uniform Database Trials - the PMC is sponsoring a standard database for the five year period from 1996 through 2000 inclusively. This will be made available to all PMC agencies and the entire FB research community and will be used in model verification trials.

  3. Physics - any FB circulation model developed should incorporate realistic physics and take full advantage of the sophisticated understanding of the major relevant processes and features that has been developed by the PST and its constituent projects.

  4. Objectives - The primary objectives of a FB circulation model (s) are to generate reasonable salinity fields and advective pathways under different management scenarios and different natural conditions. This includes reasonable estimates of basin residence times and turnover rates and the effects (if any) of widening/deepening the cuts through the Keys or adding anywhere the pathway is completely occluded.

  5. Bathymetry/Boundary Conditions - An y FB circulation model will have to use the best available bathymetric data (currently USGS) and boundary condition data (winds/tides/radiative/hydrography) whatever their source.

  6. Scalable - Any FB circulation model(s) will have to be amenable to coarsening or telescoping to address the different scales implicit in the aforementioned objectives.


Name  Affiliation  email address
Bill Nuttle  PMC  nuttlew@fiu.edu
Frank Aikman  NOAA/NOS  frank.aikman@noaa.gov
Chris Langevin  USGS  langevin@usgs.gov
Eric Swain  USGS  edswain@usgs.gov
Peter Ortner  NOAA/AOML  ortner@aoml.noaa.gov
Steve Traxler  USACE  Stephen.L.Traxler@usace.army.mil
Mike Robblee  USGS  Mike.Robblee@usgs.gov
Ray Schaffranek  USGS  rws@usgs.gov
Sherry Mitchell  ENP  Sherry.Mitchell@nps.gov
Tim McIntosh  DERM  mcintt@co.miami-dade.fl.us
Jim Baker  USACE  James.M.Baker@usace.army.mil
Zaki Moustafa  SFWMD  moustafa@sfwmd.gov
David Rudnick  SFWMD  drudnic@sfwmd.gov
Tom Lee  Univ. of Miami tlee@rsmas.miami.edu