Altug Aksoy

Research Interests

Ensemble-based data assimilation.

Hurricane data assimilation and modeling.

Radar data assimilation.

Simultaneous state and parameter estimation.

Ensemble forecasting and model development.

Hurricanes and tropical meteorology.

Convective- and vortex-scale analysis and forecasting.

Altug Aksoy, Ph.D.

Scientist (University of Miami/CIMAS), Hurricane Research Division

305.361.4419

Altug.Aksoy@noaa.gov

Altug_Aksoy

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami, Florida 33149

“The more you trust what you already know, the worse becomes the performance of data assimilation.”

About

Dr. Altug Aksoy has scientific interests in data assimilation, numerical weather prediction, and ensemble methods, and especially in their application to tropical and mesoscale meteorology, as well as remote sensing platforms such as radars, lidars, and satellites. He has been jointly appointed at Hurricane Research Division and University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies since 2008.

Current Work & CV

Current Work

Developer of the in-house HEDAS data assimilation system, data assimilation and data impact applications for hurricane inner-core applications, and one of the lead PIs of NOAA’s new HAFS data assimilation system.

Download Full CV

Education

2005, Ph.D., Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

1994, M.B.A., Finance and Investments, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C.

1991, B.S., Mechanical Engineering, Boğazici University, Istanbul, Turkey

Publications

Aksoy, A. A Monte Carlo approach to understanding the impacts of initial-condition uncertainty, model uncertainty, and simulation variability on the predictability of chaotic systems: Perspectives from the one-dimensional logistic map. Chaos, 34(1):011102, https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0181705 2024
Ref. 4387
Poyer, A., W. Komaromi, S. Gopalakrishnan, L. Wolf, F. Marks, G. Alaka Jr., J. Anderson, V. Tallapragada, M. Brennan, A. Mehra, X. Zhang, Z. Zhang, A. Hazelton, D.A. Zelinsky, J.L. Franklin, A. Aksoy, C. Alexander, M. Bender, L. Bernardet, M. Biswas, J. Cangialosi, M. DeMaria, R. Dunlap, M. Ek, G. Eosco, L. Gramer, L. Harris, J.S. Hilderbrand, E. Kalina, H.-S. Kim, P. Kucera, B. Liu, P. McCaslin, T. Marchok, J. Moskaitis, K. Musgrave, L. Nance, K. Newman, M. Onderlinde, W. Ramstrom, D. Rosen, J. Sims, J. Sippel, D. Stern, R. Torn, X. Wang, W. Wang, Y. Weng, B.C. Zachry, C. Zhang, M. Zhang, and L. Zhu. 2021-2022 HFIP R&D activities summary: Recent results and operational implementation. HFIP Technical Report, HFIP-2023-1, 73 pp., https://doi.org/10.25923/exgj-1n68 2023
Ref. 4413
Sellwood, K.J., J.A. Sippel, and A. Aksoy. Assimilation of Coyote small uncrewed aircraft system observations in Hurricane Maria (2017) using operational HWRF. Weather and Forecasting, 38(6):901-919, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0214.1 2023
Ref. 4242

View all Related Publications

Aksoy, A. A Monte Carlo approach to understanding the impacts of initial-condition uncertainty, model uncertainty, and simulation variability on the predictability of chaotic systems: Perspectives from the one-dimensional logistic map. Chaos, 34(1):011102, https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0181705 2024
Ref. 4387
Poyer, A., W. Komaromi, S. Gopalakrishnan, L. Wolf, F. Marks, G. Alaka Jr., J. Anderson, V. Tallapragada, M. Brennan, A. Mehra, X. Zhang, Z. Zhang, A. Hazelton, D.A. Zelinsky, J.L. Franklin, A. Aksoy, C. Alexander, M. Bender, L. Bernardet, M. Biswas, J. Cangialosi, M. DeMaria, R. Dunlap, M. Ek, G. Eosco, L. Gramer, L. Harris, J.S. Hilderbrand, E. Kalina, H.-S. Kim, P. Kucera, B. Liu, P. McCaslin, T. Marchok, J. Moskaitis, K. Musgrave, L. Nance, K. Newman, M. Onderlinde, W. Ramstrom, D. Rosen, J. Sims, J. Sippel, D. Stern, R. Torn, X. Wang, W. Wang, Y. Weng, B.C. Zachry, C. Zhang, M. Zhang, and L. Zhu. 2021-2022 HFIP R&D activities summary: Recent results and operational implementation. HFIP Technical Report, HFIP-2023-1, 73 pp., https://doi.org/10.25923/exgj-1n68 2023
Ref. 4413
Sellwood, K.J., J.A. Sippel, and A. Aksoy. Assimilation of Coyote small uncrewed aircraft system observations in Hurricane Maria (2017) using operational HWRF. Weather and Forecasting, 38(6):901-919, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0214.1 2023
Ref. 4242
Aksoy, A., J.J. Cione, B.A. Dahl, and P.D. Reasor. Tropical cyclone data assimilation with Coyote uncrewed aircraft system observations, very frequent cycling, and a new online quality control technique. Monthly Weather Review, 150(4):797-829, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0124.1 2022
Ref. 4062
Christophersen, H., J.A. Sippel, A. Aksoy, and N.L. Baker. Recent advances for tropical cyclone data assimilation. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1517(1):25-43, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14873 2022
Ref. 4215
Zawislak, J., R.F. Rogers, S.D. Aberson, G.J. Alaka, G. Alvey, A. Aksoy, L. Bucci, J. Cione, N. Dorst, J. Dunion, M. Fischer, J. Gamache, S. Gopalakrishnan, A. Hazelton, H.M. Holbach, J. Kaplan, H. Leighton, F. Marks, S.T. Murillo, P. Reasor, K. Ryan, K. Sellwood, J.A. Sippel, and J.A. Zhang. Accomplishments of NOAA’S airborne hurricane field program and a broader future approach to forecast improvement. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(2):E311-E338, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0174.1 2022
Ref. 3984
Cione, J.J., G.H. Bryan, R. Dobosy, J.A. Zhang, G. de Boer, A. Aksoy, J.B. Wadler, E.A. Kalina, B.A. Dahl, K. Ryan, J. Neuhaus, E. Dumas, F.D. Marks, A.M. Farber, T. Hock, and X. Chen. Eye of the storm: Observing hurricanes with a small Unmanned Aircraft System. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(2):E186-E205, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0169.1 2020
Ref. 3748
Wick, G.A., J.P. Dunion, P.G. Black, J.R. Walker, R.D. Torn, A.C. Kren, A. Aksoy, H. Christophersen, L. Cucurull, B. Dahl, J.M. English, K. Friedman, T.R. Peevey, K. Sellwood, J.A. Sippel, V. Tallapragada, J. Taylor, H. Wang, R.E. Hood, and P. Hall. NOAA’s Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Experiment: Observations and forecast impacts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(7):E698-E987, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0257.1 2020
Ref. 3771
Christophersen, H., A. Aksoy, J. Dunion, and S. Aberson. Composite impact of Global Hawk unmanned aircraft dropwindsondes on tropical cyclone analyses and forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 146(7):2297-2314, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0304.1 2018
Ref. 3542
Christopherson, H., R. Atlas, A. Aksoy, and J. Dunion. Combined use of satellite observations and Global Hawk unmanned aircraft dropwindsondes for improved tropical cyclone analyses and forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 33(4):1021-1031, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0167.1 2018
Ref. 3552
Steward, J.L., J.E. Roman, A. Lamas Davina, and A. Aksoy. Parallel direct solution of the covariance-localized ensemble square root Kalman filter equations with matrix functions. Monthly Weather Review, 146(9):2819-2836, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0022.1 2018
Ref. 3532
Aksoy, A., J.A. Zhang, B.W. Klotz, E.W. Uhlhorn, and J.J. Cione. Axisymmetric initialization of the atmosphere and ocean for idealized coupled hurricane simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9(7):2672-2695, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000977 2017
Ref. 3478
Christophersen, H., A. Aksoy, P. Dunion, and K. Sellwood. The impact of NASA Global Hawk unmanned aircraft dropwindsonde observations on tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure: Case studies. Monthly Weather Review, 145(5):1817-1830, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0332.1 2017
Ref. 3379
Steward, J.L., A. Aksoy, and Z.S. Haddad. Parallel direct solution of the Ensemble Square-Root Kalman Filter equations with observation principal components. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 34(9):1867-1884, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0140.1 2017
Ref. 3441
Aberson, S.D., A. Aksoy, K.J. Sellwood, T. Vukicevic, and X. Zhang. Assimilation of high-resolution tropical cyclone observations with an ensemble Kalman filter using HEDAS: Evaluation of 2008-2011 HWRF forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 143(2):511-523, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00138.1 2015
Ref. 3067
Aksoy, A. Parameter estimation. In Encylopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (2nd edition), G.R. North, J. Pyle, and F. Zhang (eds.). Academic Press, Volume 4, 181-186, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-382225-3.00494-1 2014
Ref. 3044
Gall, R., F. Toepfer, F. Marks, E.N. Rappaport, A. Aksoy, S. Aberson, J.W. Bao, M. Bender, S. Benjamin, L. Bernardet, M. Biswas, B. Brown, J. Cangialosi, C. Davis, M. DeMaria, J. Doyle, M. Fiorino, J. Franklin, I. Ginis, S. Gopalakrishnan, T. Hamill, R. Hodur, H.S. Kim, J. Knaff, T. Krishnamurti, P. Kucera, Y. Kwon, W. Lapenta, N. Lett, S. Lord, T. Marchok, E. Mifflin, M. Morin, K. Musgrave, L. Nance, C. Reynolds, V. Tallapragada, H. Tolman, R. Torn, G. Vandenberghe, T. Vukicevic, X. Wang, Y. Weng, J. Whittaker, R. Yablonsky, D.-L. Zhang, F. Zhang, J. Zhang, X. Zhang, and D.A. Delinsky. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: 2013 HFIP R&D activities summary—Recent results and operational implementation. HFIP Technical Report, HFIP2014-2, 50 pp., 2014
Ref. 2970
Aksoy, A. Storm-relative observations in tropical cyclone data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter. Monthly Weather Review, 141(2):506-522, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00094.1 2013
Ref. 2791
Aksoy, A., S.D. Aberson, T. Vukicevic, K.J. Sellwood, S. Lorsolo, and X. Zhang. Assimilation of high-resolution tropical cyclone observations with an ensemble Kalman filter using NOAA/AOML/HRD’s HEDAS: Evaluation of the 2008-2011 vortex-scale analyses. Monthly Weather Review, 141(6):1842-1865, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00194.1 2013
Ref. 2850
Lorsolo, S., J. Gamache, and A. Aksoy. Evaluation of the Hurricane Research Division Doppler radar analysis software using synthetic data. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 30(6):1055-1071, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00161.1 2013
Ref. 2856
Rogers, R.F., S.D. Aberson, A. Aksoy, B. Annane, M. Black, J.J. Cione, N. Dorst, J. Dunion, J.F. Gamache, S.B. Goldenberg, S.G. Gopalakrishnan, J. Kaplan, B.W. Klotz, S. Lorsolo, F.D. Marks, S.T. Murillo, M.D. Powell, P.D. Reasor, K.J. Sellwood, E.W. Uhlhorn, T. Vukicevic, J.A. Zhang, and X. Zhang. NOAA’s Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX): A progress report. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94(6):859-882, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00089 2013
Ref. 2862
Vukicevic, T., A. Aksoy, P. Reasor, S. Aberson, K. Sellwood, and F. Marks. Joint impact of forecast tendency and state error biases in Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation of inner-core tropical cyclone observations. Monthly Weather Review, 141(9):2992-3006, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00211.1 2013
Ref. 2893
Aksoy, A., S. Lorsolo, T. Vukicevic, K.J. Sellwood, S.D. Aberson, and F. Zhang. The HWRF Hurricane Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) for high-resolution data: The impact of airborne Doppler radar observations in an OSSE. Monthly Weather Review, 140(6):1843-1862, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00212.1 2012
Ref. 2690
Lorsolo, S., and A. Aksoy. Wavenumber analysis of azimuthally-distributed data: Assessing maximum allowable gap size. Monthly Weather Review, 140(6):1945-1956, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00219.1 2012
Ref. 2689
Aksoy, A., D.C. Dowell, and C. Snyder. A multicase comparative assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations, Part II: Short-range ensemble forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 138(4):1273-1292, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3086.1 2010
Ref. 136
Aksoy, A., D.C. Dowell, and C. Snyder. A multicase comparative assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations, Part I: Storm-scale analyses. Monthly Weather Review, 137(6):1805-1824, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3086.1 2009
Ref. 248

Awards

2021 American Meteorological Society Certificate of Appreciation for Service as Editor of the Board of the Monthly Weather Review

2018 Aviation Laureate Award for Dual Defense Use

For the use of the Coyote unmanned aerial system to gather data in the eye of Hurricane Maria, enabling NOAA to better forecast how intense the storm would be at landfall and more accurately estimate the magnitude of Maria’s storm surge.

2011, 2012 U.S. Department of Commerce Certificate of Recognition

2011 American Meteorological Society Editor’s Award

For providing a large number of high-quality reviews to several of the editors.

2011 NASA Group Achievement Award

For outstanding contributions to the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) field campaign as members of the GRIP Science Team during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.