It is well recognized that Ecosystem Restoration will require long term research because restoration activities will themselves proceed for more than a decade. However, there is a short-term need for information determinative of the impact of current changes in freshwater delivery and those proposed for the immediate future. Some activities will yield short-term results (<5 years) while others will either not be complete in that time or will have to be revisited as restoration proceeds. For example, it is expected that boundary condition modeling of the Bay must provide utilizable results that can be integrated into the integrated system models over the next few years; however, the boundary component will require fine tuning after sensitivity analyses of the integrated system model and as that model itself is refined. Because changes to the freshwater delivery of the Bay are ongoing and more are anticipated in the immediate future, research directly germane to overall ecological restoration criteria is especially critical. In any case, the timing and scheduling of the various programmatic and substantive elements of each of three components described in section III is depicted in a series of Gantt bar charts (Figures 5-7).

As depicted in Figure 5, an RFP process for the risk assessment &;socioeconomic analysis component would be initiated in the fall of 1996 resulting in awards as early as possible in calendar 1997. An initial risk assessment could be completed within 2 years, based primarily on existing data and models. This assessment will be based primarily on existing data and models and will result in a conceptual model describing the full spectrum of potential risks to critical South Florida coastal ecosystems from human activities, including continued urban development and ecosystem restoration. The conceptual model will include explicit characterization of restoration-induced stress regimes and their linkage to specific critical coastal systems, as well as recommendations for ecological endpoints to determine the health of those systems. Included in this initial assessment will be the explicit characterization of the uncertainties in our present understanding and a prioritized list of recommendations for research and monitoring activities specifically designed to reduce uncertainties and improve ongoing monitoring efforts. This initial ecological risk assessment will include a relative ranking of risks to the critical coastal ecosystems that will be used to direct additional research activities and the comprehensive risk assessment.

A comprehensive ecological risk assessment will be completed within five years. The final risk assessment ideally will be a quantitative, predictive assessment that explicitly links restoration activities and system drivers with specific spatial and temporal stress regime patterns and their co occurrence with critical ecological resources. An integrated modeling framework will be developed that includes hydrodynamic and fate-and-transport models with spatially explicit models of critical ecological resources and stress-response models for specific ecosystem components. This modeling framework will be packaged into a decision module that will provide the decision-maker with the tools to examine the risks to ecological resources of a variety of management scenarios and options. Specifically, this comprehensive ecological risk assessment will provide a unique and extremely valuable framework for evaluating the implications upon the South Florida coastal environment of the planned restructuring of the regional water management system. Note that Risk management concerns require ongoing socioeconomic analyses and generation of management application products throughout the program lifetime over the next five years.

As depicted in Figure 6, although a work plan will not be developed and approved until early in 1997, the Community Education &;Outreach component has already been initiated with other sources of funding. Specifically, some information dissemination activities have begun: Florida Sea Grant is broadcasting a low frequency radio message which can be received throughout the south Dade and Monroe Counties; has generated video material for television broadcast and has published and distributed to the public a simplified description of the Interagency Florida Bay Science program. Moreover, Florida Sea Grant coordinated and facilitated the last annual Science Review of the Interagency Florida Bay Program and has been designated to do so for the upcoming review as well including publication of the proceedings. Additional PMC sponsored workshops and community outreach programs, seminars and workshops will be initiated in FY97 and continue through the lifetime of the restoration effort. It is expected that this activity has no end point until restoration goals have been met and activities cease.

As depicted in Figure 7, Environmental Research and Modeling represents an expansion and refocusing of a set of elements many of which are underway to be consistent with the obligations expressed in the Strategic Science Plan for the Interagency Florida Bay Program. The RFP process resulting in FY97 awards will be initiated as soon as possible resulting in awards early in calendar 1997. The RFP will be distributed to all state sea grant office, major oceanographic institutions and through the Interagency PMC to all our agency partners and their constituents. To assist those responding, this implementation plan and the Strategic Science Plan for the Interagency Florida Bay Program will be made available electronically via a World-Wide Web and ftp: site.

Present Research and Modeling elements that will be continued include mesoscale atmospheric and regional circulation modeling. A new microclimate element will be initiated in 1997 as will a new pelagic ecosystem modeling element. On the other hand the benthic habitat and pink shrimp elements previously funded will be assumed by the NMFS program. A major effort on nutrient dynamics (sources, sinks and transformations) will be initiated in FY97. It is hard to know the endpoint of the paleo-ecological effort which is depicted (perhaps in error) as continuing through the life of the program. Pelagic ecosystem dynamics represent a major area of expansion with the end of a preliminary assessment phase and the initiation of full blown efforts in algal bloom dynamics, zooplankton grazing and trophodynamics, icthyoplankton and hypothesis-driven physiological experiments. Note that rainfall radar estimation is expected to shift from a research to an operational mode in 1997/8. To accommodate a reduction in COP resources for SFER in FY2000 and beyond, elements the research phase of which should be most complete (and are therefore most suitable for continuing in a monitoring mode if at all) are phased out. On the other hand, there is little doubt that circulation/transport support studies and data management will almost certainly have to be continued for the life of the program.

The long-term funding plan consistent with these Gantt charts and timetables is then as follows:
;;;

	FY97	FY98	FY99	FY2000	FY2001
C.E.&O.	180	180	180	180	180
R. A.&S.A.	300	320	320	160	160
E.R.&M.	2000	2000	1900	1060	1060
Pgm /Data	220	400	400	400	400
COP	2300	2300	2300	1300	1300
NMFS	300	300	300	300	300
NESDIS		200	200	200	200
ERL	100	100

The above table excludes matching funds required of NOAA investigators receiving COP funds. In previous years (see Appendix 1) these have been appreciable. It does include specific targeted contributions by ERL and NESDIS as well as the NMFS contribution to appropriate Research and Modeling (and possibly Risk Assessment/Socioeconomic Analysis) projects.

B. Collaborative Planning / NOAA Program Element Interactions

As mentioned at the outset, this COP program is intended to closely complement the other components of the FY97 Initiative: South Florida Coastal Ecosystem Regional Monitoring (NOS) and Living Marine Resources (NMFS). It has been decided that the various components will be developed by a local team consisting of representatives of NOS- i.e., the FKNMS), NMFS -i.e., the SEFC and COP- i.e., AOML. The SFERPM Implementation Plan has been distributed to these individuals and has been modified markedly on the basis of the input received. Since staff from these entities as well as a large of local scientists participated in generating the substance of the SFERPM plan initially these modifications were not extensive.

The Risk Assessment/Socioeconomic Analysis element will be a direct user of the information generated by the NOS Monitoring and NMFS/SEFC Research programs. The Research and Modeling element will look to the NOS monitoring program for long term systematic data collection. In particular we hope that the NOS monitoring component funds extension of the CMAN/SEAKEYS network to include additional stations along the west side of Florida Bay and in its interior. Meteorological data and continuous long term oceanographic data records are felt to be sparse in those locations. Augmenting this network would markedly contribute to regional physical modeling efforts supported by the SFERPM program and its interagency partners in the Florida Bay Program. At the same time the SFERPM program will be extending its sampling network out through the inlets between the Keys which will markedly augment the basic monitoring network within the FKNMS.

We look to the NMFS/SEFC program (and its partners predominately within the DOI Florida Bay Program) for information on the higher trophic levels as well as benthic community composition and function. The NMFS program has also agreed to assume some of the projects previously supported within the COP program (pink shrimp, benthic/seagrass habitat and mercury pollution studies) while at the same time directly contributing support to the COP program in part for Living Marine Aspects of the Risk Assessment/Socioeconomic analysis activity and an expansion of icthyoplankton/recruitment research. The Outreach and Community Education element will directly serve the NMFS and NOS/ORCA programs to the degree to which their scope overlaps (primarily Florida Bay and FKNMS). For example, NMFS is specifically contemplating public outreach activities focusing on education and information targeting minorities including the non-English speaking community of South Dade. Moreover the activities of this element will be closely coordinated with the Public Information and Education Subgroup of the Interagency Working Group. Last, the NMFS program where appropriate will integrate its RFP process with that of the COP program including as necessary Interagency Florida Bay PMC oversite and review.

To further assure long term complementarity , two members of the PMC for the COP program are assisting the NOS/ORCA and DEP/FNMRI group who wish to facilitate regional ecosystem monitoring planning and the FKNMS is represented on the Florida Bay PMC, on the Technical Advisory Panel for the COP program and is assisting NOS/ORCA and DEP/FNMRI as described above. Moreover, the deputy director of the NMFS/SEFC is a member of the COP PMC (as well as the Interagency Florida Bay PMC), and the director of the NMFS/SEFC is the chair of the Science Subgroup.

C. Projected Resource Requirements (ships etc.)

Resource requirements will be determined by what research projects are actually funded. It is expected that as new projects are included and other projects completed, new resources will be required. Flightime for the rainfall research effort has been provided to date from the AOML/HRD base allocation and we expect this to suffice in the future. On the other hand, the circulation studies, nutrient and algal bloom dynamics , zooplankton, contaminants, icthyoplankton and recruitment research all require the use of a small vessel capable of conducting research in extremely shallow Bay waters. To date this has been supplied by a NMFS vessel used principally for mammal studies. However this will no longer suffice (see above). In addition, expanded our physical horizon to include more of the western boundary and the inlets through the Keys implies access to an intermediate vessel most likely a suitable UNOLS charter. This prospect appears to be contemplated in the FY97 budget in which ship funds are allocated to the line organizations. AOML has requested funds for chartering a small UNOLS vessel 45-60 days per year (estimated cost $180-240K) in its OAR shiptime request.

D. Contributions to the Coral Reef Initiative and the FKNMS

Contributions specifically consistent with the CRI (which is focused upon the reef tract of the FKNMS) will include the installation, maintenance and continuance of physical instrumentation (oceanographic and meteorological) in and near the inlets that dominate exchange between the Bay and the FKNMS. Moreover this and perhaps some existing fixed sites will be instrumented to record additional parameters including at least fluorescence and turbidity. In addition a system for remote telemetry of these data to a central site is contemplated as well as some direct support for upgrading the existing CHAMP site as a real time data depository and distribution center. CHAMP is already performing some of these functions albeit at a comparatively low level with base (AOML) support. Together these are estimated to cost ca. $325K. Even more significantly a major fraction (>$1000K) will be spent on upstream transport, circulation and plankton dynamics. In collaboration with other aspects of the interagency Florida Bay program this will yield a predictive understanding of the transformations the Bay has undergone and the degree to which exported nutrients, algal blooms and suspended material are presently and will in the future affect the FKNMS.