Draft Implementation Plan

Science Program for Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems

Executive Officer’s Report – May 1999

William K. Nuttle, Executive Officer

Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems Science Program

Florida Bay Interagency Science Center

98630 Overseas Highway

Key Largo, FL 33037

Background

Over the next 18 months, the Science Program for Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems will move squarely into an implementation phase. Since 1995, emphasis in the Program has been given to setting strategic research goals, initiating projects necessary to meet those goals, and maintaining the continuity of this work. This has been accomplished to a large degree, and the Program must now address a new set of issues. How can the results of individual research projects be integrated to provide a holistic understanding of Florida Bay? How can a scientific understanding of the bay be used to achieve the objectives of ecosystem restoration and conservation in south Florida? In addition, recommendations of the Science Oversight Panel point to the need for timely delivery of results and improved communications with the Oversight Panel and with resource managers.

In response to these developments, the Program is initiating a number of activities that complement its established research program. These activities are being undertaken to achieve the following goals:

· Develop an implementation plan for providing results of research to support ecosystem restoration.

· Review elements of the Program in light of goals and priorities of the Program, identify gaps, and lead cooperating agencies to refocus their programs.

· Strengthen contacts with Oversight Panel and various management entities tasked with responsibility for ecosystem restoration in south Florida.

· Integrate the efforts of separate modeling groups into a cohesive program with a timeline for model development and supported by data collection for model verification and testing.

· Develop synthesis documents that summarize results of research and distill program recommendations developed by the research teams.

· Develop ecological performance measures and criteria for establishing restoration goals through the involvement of the scientific community.

The Implementation Plan

This report summarizes the progress of the last 6 months on developing an implementation plan, reviewing elements of the Program and improving contacts and communication with resource managers. The first step in the transition within the Program was taken in August 1998 by filling the position of Executive Officer. On joining the Program in November Executive Officer immediately began the task of formulating the Implementation Plan in consultation with the Program Management Committee (PMC). The Implementation Plan deals explicitly with the goals to develop synthesis documents, integrate modeling efforts, and develop performance measures. The duties defined for the Executive Officer are based on the goals described above. Therefore, this report also serves as the 6-month progress report of the Executive Officer.

The Implementation Plan of the Science Program for Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems comprises activities that integrate elements of the research program and synthesize research results so that these are useful to resource managers and accessible to an informed public audience. The Implementation Plan consists of three activities that have evolved as distinct elements of the Program over the past 6 months. These are building a modeling consortium, conducting synthesis exercises, and developing ecologically based performance measures. Each of these activities corresponds to one of the new goals for the implementation phase of the Program.

The Implementation Plan complements and extends the plan for research described in the Strategic Plan for the Interagency Florida Bay Science Program. The Strategic Plan defines five central questions related to understanding Florida Bay as an ecosystem in a region that is strongly affected by human activities. These questions are used by the Program Management Committee (PMC) to coordinate research in the bay by the state and federal agencies represented on the PMC. Research teams, which are organized by question, assist the PMC in these efforts. These questions also serve as points of reference for review and advice given to the PMC by the independent Florida Bay Science Oversight Panel.

Activities described by the Implementation Plan integrate the elements of the research program by cutting across the five central questions. Ultimately, each of the activities of the Implementation Plan will make use of the results of research on all five of the central questions, but at present the activities use research on only two or three questions. For example, the initiative to build a consortium for development and application of models of the bay mainly involves research and monitoring related to central questions one and two, which deal with circulation, mixing and other controls on water quality. This reflects the fact that generic models of coastal hydrodynamics and estuarine water quality already existed when work began on Florida Bay, and these models could be parameterized for application in Florida Bay. Therefore, these models are now available for comparing with monitoring data and for exploring some aspects of the response of the bay to human activities. At the same time, efforts to formulate a seagrass model for the bay have only just begun. One of the future activities for the modeling consortium will be to assimilate the results of this development effort.

Each of the activities in the Implementation Plan addresses a different need of resource managers. The development of ecologically based performance measures fills the need for a set of science-based planning tools. Recent work on the Central and Southern Florida Project Restudy serves to define the nature of performance measures and how they are used in a planning process. The objective of the modeling consortium is to develop predictive models for Florida Bay, which provide a more general tool for managers. Predictive models are used to assess restoration alternatives, as illustrated by application in the Restudy of the South Florida Water Management Model (regional hydrology) and the ATLSS ecological models. However, these models can also provide the “null hypothesis” in taking an experimental approach to interpreting results of a monitoring program, i.e. the models predict a future state, based on certain assumptions, which can be tested by observation. Synthesis exercises address the need to continually test and refine the conceptual models that managers rely on to interpret monitoring data and plan restoration activities. To be most effective, synthesis exercises are being developed as a consultative exercise with participation of both managers and scientists.

The Implementation Plan is still developing. This report describes activities initiated in the past 6 months. The report will be updated as these activities mature and new elements are added to the plan. The Implementation Plan does not yet address the role of the Program in long-term monitoring. This reflects, in part, the fact that planning and implementation of restoration are still in an early stage, and there are not yet mechanisms for incorporating the feedback that monitoring will provide. Also, the monitoring program will make use of the performance measures, which have yet to be defined and developed. Current activities are focused on delivering results at the Florida Bay Science Conference, scheduled for November 1 – 4. A timeline of major milestones for the year leading up to this conference is included at the end of this report.

Modeling Consortium

The PMC’s strategy for development of a predictive, numerical model for the Florida Bay ecosystem is to organize the agencies involved in model development into a consortium in which one agency assumes leadership. At present, four agencies share responsibility for developing and eventually applying what is developing as a suite of linked models. These are the Jacksonville District of the Army Corps of Engineers (ACoE), Department of Interior, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the South Florida Water Management District. Until recently, it had been assumed that the ACoE would lead this interagency effort. This assumption was based, in part, on the extent of the Corps’ model development effort in south Florida. However, this was a misreading of the Corps’ intentions, and no agency leads this effort.

The PMC recognizes two needs for successful model development that are not being met currently. First, the Program must provide the modelers with clear direction on expectations for the final product. These will include goals and deliverables that serve the needs of resource managers, i.e. Everglades National Park and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Second, effective operational management, i.e. leadership, of the modeling effort is lacking. Operational management covers the responsibility for integrating the component models, directing modeling exercises to meet specific goals, and reporting results to resource managers. In order to stimulate discussion with member agencies on the need for operational management, the Executive Officer has prepared a document that summarizes the component models, the current status of these models, and identifies the needs of the Program.

The PMC has assumed responsibility for operational management of the modeling program. Communications between the Program and the Corps have improved generally, and a cooperative relationship now exists. Both the Corps’ hydrodynamic model (RMA-10) and Everglades National Park’s mass balance model (FATHOM) now claim the capability of predicting salinity in Florida Bay. The Executive Officer is coordinating a technical review of these models by members of the Physical Science Team. The modeling teams are participating in an exercise that will simulate salinity in the bay for a set of prescribed management and rainfall scenarios. Results of this scenario exercise will be reported at the Florida Bay Science Conference in November.

In spite of the progress described above, the current situation, in which the PMC provides operational management to model development, is not viable over the long term. The PMC operates only as a coordinating body to member agencies. It does not have the ability to allocate resources directly, and therefore its ability to direct projects is severely limited. Neither does the PMC have the staff resources sufficient to coordinate such a far-flung effort effectively. Therefore, the PMC is exploring opportunities to develop operational management of the modeling consortium within one of the agencies.

Synthesis Exercises

Synthesis is being pursued through the production of a series of brief reports, called mini-syntheses, each of which focuses on a particular aspect of the Florida Bay ecosystem. The aim of these reports is to connect an interested, educated lay audience with the recent research on a topic. The reports will be approximately 2000 words in length and contain technical graphics and references to the scientific literature. The Nature Conservancy and Sea Grant are assisting with the production and publication of these reports. The recent Florida Bay Watch Report, “Florida Marine Research Institute maps reveal decreases in Florida Bay algal blooms,” is a prototype of these mini-syntheses. Typically, these reports will be written by a single, anonymous author and refined through a two-step process of technical review followed by editing for a consistent overall writing style. They can be produced quickly, and it is anticipated that the short format will make these reports accessible to a wider audience.

To feed the production of mini-syntheses, the Program is pursuing a consultative approach that engages resource managers in the synthesis process. Participation by managers is necessary for effective communication between the realms of science and management. Syntheses of research serve primarily to test and refine managers’ understanding of the ecosystem’s mechanics and its sensitivity to human activities, i.e. their conceptual model of the system. This understanding guides managers’ decisions in design and implementation of restoration by determining the set of interventions that managers consider necessary and feasible. By engaging managers to define the topic, a synthesis is more likely to address the questions critical to the design and implementation of restoration activities. If the synthesis process is conducted entirely within the realm of science, without reference to the questions and concerns of managers, then it is more likely that the synthesis will fail to address the problems related to ecosystem restoration.

The workshop and follow-up on the effects of Hurricane Georges serves as a model of this consultative approach to synthesis. Hurricane Georges (September 26, 1998) passed through the region at a time when a number of projects were active in the bay. The nutrient team organized a meeting in November 1998 to give researchers the opportunity to compare notes on what had been observed. The Nature Conservancy, acting in the role of managers, covered a portion of the cost of the workshop, and helped set the agenda by framing three questions about specific impacts of Georges on the ecosystem of the bay. These questions were designed to test the hypothesis that hurricanes perform beneficial maintenance activities, such as flushing excess sediments, etc. out of the bay.

Co-sponsorship by managers facilitated the synthesis of research results during the meeting, even though much of the research that could be presented so soon after the storm was still preliminary. The managers’ questions were presented at the start of the meeting in the form of a “charge” to the group, and they were used to guide an open discussion after the researchers had presented their data and observations. By accepting outside sponsorship, the Program is committed to produce a tangible product, i.e. a written summary of the meeting. This summary is being produced in the mini-synthesis format, described above, and it will be published as an issued of the Florida Bay Watch Report. A draft of this report can be viewed, along with a compilation of data related to the effect of Hurricane Georges on the Bay, on the Program’s web site (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/flbay/). The workshop on bloom dynamics, scheduled for May 25, is being organized around this same model. The Nature Conservancy again will play the role of management sponsor of the workshop, and a mini-synthesis document will be produced as part of the reporting from the workshop.

Several other mini-syntheses are in preparation that did not originate as workshop reports. Work on the topics listed below was initiated in February 1999. These projects are an attempt to provide a meaningful close to a number of research projects, conducted with support from the state of Florida which is now ending. Work on another set of topics is set to begin with an editorial meeting in July.

· succession in seagrass beds

· mollusk distributions and salinity

· benthic habitats drive spatial distribution of fish

· invasion of sea urchins

· lobsters in Florida Bay

It is anticipated that these mini-syntheses will focus discussion among scientists and thus with serve as precursors to the broader objective of synthesizing research on each of the five central questions of the strategic plan.

In addition to the mini-synthesis format, two compilations of peer-reviewed research papers are expected to be completed in this year. In June, Estuaries will publish a special volume of papers on Florida Bay: a dynamic subtropical estuary. The second is a collection of papers on the paleoecology of the bay.

Performance Measures

Performance measures form one of the primary links between ecosystem science and restoration management. They consist of a quantifiable attribute of ecosystem structure or function combined with a restoration target for the attribute. Setting target values must take into account the natural variability of the related attribute and the role of this variability in function of the ecosystem. The significance of a particular ecosystem attribute as a guide for restoration depends on its sensitivity to the impacts of human activities on the ecosystem. Managers rely on conceptual models, based in science and established by consensus, to describe the cause and effect relationship between human activities and ecological response. In the planning for restoration, performance measures provide the basis for assessing the relative benefit of various alternative management actions. The recently completed Central and Southern Florida Project Restudy serves as the model for this application of performance measures in south Florida. In the implementation of restoration, performance measures serve in the interpretation of post-project monitoring data to assess and document the effectiveness of the restoration efforts.

In its comments on the Restudy Report (December 1998), the PMC pointed out that the current set of performance measures for Florida Bay are inadequate, and it committed the Program to the task of developing improved performance measures by the next Florida Bay Science Conference in November 1999. The Restudy used a set of performance measures for Florida Bay that consisted of monthly average salinity in a few near-shore bays and associated thresholds of high and low salinity values. Evaluation of these measures, i.e. salinity, relied on a set of regression relations to link salinity in the near-shore bays with water levels in the upper portion of Shark Slough in Everglades National Park. The PMC’s comments identified two major problems with these performance measures. First, improved physically-based hydrologic models are needed to assess the effects of hydrologic restoration on the bay. Second, the performance measures for Florida Bay must make use of the information on all aspects of the ecology of the bay. Exclusive reliance on salinity falls short of this objective.

The Program’s work to develop ecological performance measures for the bay focuses first on quantifying the relation of species and communities to variations in salinity. This year, several small projects will conduct empirical investigations of existing, long-term data. One project (Jim Fourqurean, FIU) will assemble and analyze the available data on water quality and seagrass species distribution and abundance. Everglades National Park has committed funds for this project, and work is to begin shortly. Other projects will make us of the water quality data assembled by this first project in their analyses directed to other components of the ecosystem. Florida DEP has committed funds to support analysis of its data on molluscan communities, lobsters and finfish. It may also be possible to include benthic fish communities and shrimp in these analyses. Results of this work will be reported at a special synthesis session planned for the Florida Bay Science Conference in November 1999. A project being developed by the higher trophic level research team will build on these results through more thorough analysis, which could include interactions of salinity with other attributes of habitat, and by incorporating data on different species that are not available to the short-term effort.

Although the PMC has been critical of the continued use of regression models for salinity, it recognizes that managers have no alternative approach until salinity models for the bay are validated and coupled with refined hydrology models. In the interim, the Program will provide managers with updated regression relations and advise them on the application of these regression models in planning restoration activities. This will be accomplished as an additional task in the empirical studies described above. Funding for this effort, both short- and long-term, is being pursued at the South Florida Water Management District.

For the time being, the Program will not attempt to establish explicit restoration targets for Florida Bay. The existing targets are stated in terms of exceeding of salinity thresholds in the near-shore bays. Salinity serves conveniently as a precursor for ecological restoration in Florida Bay. That is, the primary effect of restoring historical hydrological conditions in south Florida will be to alter the salinity regime in Florida Bay. Ecological restoration of the bay will be determined largely by the new salinity regime. Work on restoration targets is being delayed until results are available from research in two related areas. First, synthesis of paleoecological studies is now underway, and this will provide some information on pre-development salinity and ecosystem structure. Second, results of the empirical modeling studies described above will provide information which can be used to objectively relate salinity targets to specific ecological endpoints.

Timeline

	Model Consortium	Synthesis Exercises	Performance Measures
OCT 98	- PMC identifies need for better direction and management to coordinate model development and application.
NOV	- First stage in development of RMA10 (ACoE) and FATHOM (ENP) models complete. Both models capable of predicting salinity.	- Nutrient Research Team hosts workshop on Hurricane Georges with sponsorship of The Nature Conservancy.
DEC	- PMC begins discussions with NOS about need for an agency to lead modeling effort.		- PMC commits to develop ecological performance measures within one year.
JAN 99	- Executive Committee and modelers design salinity scenario exercise.		- PMC develops plan to base performance measures on empirical models of biotic response to salinity.
FEB	- Modelers review assessment and status document. Document posted for distribution.	- PMC and The Nature Conservancy agree to produce a series of mini-syntheses about Florida Bay ecology. Editorial meeting launched work on seven topics.
MAR	- Seagrass Research Team reviews proposals for development of seagrass models.		- Funding to develop performance measures obtained from ENP and FMRI.
APR		- PMC and Sea Grant prepare posters for two rooms at the Restoration Forum to be held in May.	- PMC commits to provide performance measures directly to SERA for use in project planning.
MAY	- Physical Science Team performs technical review of RMA10 and FATHOM models.	- Plankton Research Team hosts workshop to define conceptual models of bloom dynamics with sponsorship of The Nature Conservancy.
JUN 99	- Coordination meeting to begin work on seagrass models.	- “Florida Bay: a dynamic subtropical estuary” to be published as an Estuaries special volume.	- Workshop with Higher Trophic Level Team to begin work on empirical models and chart long-term program.
JUL		- Editorial meeting with The Nature Conservancy to launch second set of mini-syntheses.
AUG	- Initiate discussions with resource managers on how they can use predictive models.
SEP	- Workshop reviews results of salinity scenarios.		- Workshop reviews draft versions of performance measures.
OCT
NOV	- Presentations at Science Conference describe salinity scenarios and results of model runs	- Special session at Science Conference describes response of Florida Bay to restoration based on scenario results and new performance measures.	- Presentations at Science Conference describe development of individual performance measures.