Special Sessions on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes

11-16 January 1998 Phoenix Convention Center Phoenix, Arizona

The special sessions on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change were held in Phoenix Arizona during the 78^th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The special sessions were sponsored by the AMS Committee on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones.

The real purpose of these sessions was to pose approximately a dozen questions that need answers on the road to skillful intensity forecasts. The special sessions included both invited and contributed papers. Each session had two to four 30-min invited papers designed to present a controversial topic or to introduce a forecasting challenge. The contributed presentations were by posters displayed throughout the special session and summarized orally, 2 minutes per poster, in a dedicated poster session. The parts of the sessions not devoted to invited presentations were devoted to discussion. Participants--those contributing talks-- received summaries of the invited talks by e-mail or through this web page before the special sessions.

Any requests for information should be directed to the special session convener :

Dr. H. E. Willoughby
Hurricane Research Division/AOML/NOAA
4301 Rickenbacker Cswy, Miami, FL 33149.

Synopsis of Sessions

TUE 13 JAN

9:30 a.m. Coffee Break

10:00 a.m. Session 1: Forecast Challenges

12:15 p.m. Conference Luncheon

2:15 p.m. Session 2: Internal Dynamics

3:45 p.m. Coffee Break

4:15 p.m. Session 3: Interaction With Environmental Shear

5:45 p.m. Sessions End for the Day

WED 14 JAN

3:00 p.m. Coffee Break

3:30 p.m. Poster Session P1

5:00 p.m. Sessions End For The Day

THUR 15 JAN

9:30 a.m. Coffee Break

10:00 a.m. Session 4: Interaction With The Sea

12:00 p.m. Lunch Break

1:00 p.m. Session 5: Lateral Interaction with the Synoptic-Scale Environment

3:00 p.m. Coffee Break

3:30 p.m. Session 6: Summary and Research Directions

5:30 p.m. Special Session Ends

Program

SUN 11 JAN

6:00-9:00 p.m.

CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

MON 12 JAN

7:30 a.m.

REGISTRATION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY 16 JANUARY

TUE 13 JAN

10:00 a.m.

SESSION 1: FORECAST CHALLENGES(Invited Presentations). Chairperson: Robert Abbey, ONR, Arlington, VA.

10:00 a.m.

1.1 FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGES: AN OPERATIONAL CHALLENGE, Lixion Avila, TPC/NHC, Miami, FL.

10:30 a.m.

1.2 WHAT I'VE ALWAYS WANTED TO KNOW, BUT HAVE BEEN AFRAID TO ASK, ABOUT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY. Stephen Lord, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD.

11:00 a.m.

1.3 THOUGHTS ON WHY STATISTICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE LITTLE SKILL. Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA.

11:30 a.m.

1.4 CAN WE OBSERVE THE PARAMETERS AND PROCESSES INVOLVED IN TC INTENSITY CHANGE ADEQUATELY? Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison WI.

12:00 a.m.

Discussion.

12:15 p.m.

CONFERENCE LUNCHEON Return to synopsis

2:15 P.M.

SESSION 2: INTERNAL DYNAMICS(Invited Presentations). Chairpersons: Frank D. Marks & K. V. Ooyama, HRD, Miami, FL.

2:15 P.M.

2.1 MECHANISMS OF ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED HURRICANE STRUCTURE CHANGE. William Frank, Penn. State Univ., State College, PA.

2:45 P.M.

2.2 VORTEX INTENSIFICATION BY CONVECTIVELY FORCED VORTEX ROSSBY WAVES. Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO.

3:15 P.M.

Discussion.

3:45 P.M.

COFFEE BREAK Return to synopsis

4:15 P.M.

SESSION 3: INTERACTION WITH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR (Invited Presentations). Chairperson: Lance Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY.

4:15 P.M.

3.1 THE EFFECT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE: AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE. Mark DeMaria, TPC/NHC, Miami, FL.

4:45 P.M.

3.2 THE DYNAMICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN VERTICAL SHEAR: INSIGHT FROM THEORY AND IDEALISED MODELS. Sarah Jones, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany.

5:15 P.M.

Discussion.

5:45 P.M.

SESSIONS END FOR THE DAY Return to synopsis

WED 14 JAN

3:00 P.M.

COFFEE BREAK

3:30 p.m.

POSTER SESSION P1 Chairperson: H. E. Willoughby, HRD Miami, FL.

P1.1

A THEORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION. David J.Raymond and C. Lopez-Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM.

P1.2

AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE MECHANISMS THAT AFFECT THE INTENSITY OF TYPHOONS FLO (1990) AND GENE (1990), Chun-Chieh Wu and Hsiu-Ju Cheng, Taiwan National University, Taipei, Taiwan.

P1.3

A RESEARCH QUALITY, CONFIDENCE-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY DATA BASE FOR THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. Charles P. Guard and M. Lander, Univ. of Guam, Mangilao, GU.

P1.4

SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION AS REVEALED BY HOURLY DIGITAL DVORAK ANALYSIS. Mark A. Lander, Univ. of Guam, Mangilao, GU.

P1.5

THE USE OF SSM/I RAINFALL TO PREDICT EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE, Derek A. West, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH.

P1.6

SATELLITE TOOLS FOR MONITORING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE, Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Sandidge, D. May, R. Holyer, and M. Helveston.

P1.7

AN EXTREME CASE OF MESOSCALE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AFFECTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A CLIMATOLOGY OF SIMILAR OCCURRENCES. John Gyakum, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ; and M. Carrrera, J. Abraham, and S. Miller.

P1.8

FORECASTING SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES USING PATTERN RECOGNITION TECHNIQUES, John Pickle, AER, Inc, Cambridge, MA.

P1.9

DIAGNOSING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION AND INTENSITY CHANGE IN NUMERICAL MODEL SIMULATIONS. Peter Zwack, M. Desgagne, P. Roucheray, and C. Page, Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, PQ.

P1.10

MODELING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTION AS A RESULT OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS . Sytske Drury, Penn. State Univ., University Park, PA.

P1.11

HURRICANE OPAL AN OBSERVATIONAL AND MODELING STUDY, Joseph L. Eastman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke, M. A. Nicholls, R. Zehr, and J. Kossin.

P1.12

EFFECT OF ASYMMETRY ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and B F Jeng and R. T. Williams.

P1.13

CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRIES AND TROPICAL CYCLONE EVOLUTION. Lloyd J. Shapiro, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO.

P1.14

HURRICANE INTENSIFICATION VIA VORTEX ROSSBY-WAVES, J. Dominique Moeller and M. T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO.

P1.15

THE ROLE OF THE HURRICANE'S INNER-CORE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AS A PROXY FOR INTENSITY AND INTENSITY CHANGE. William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO.

P1.16

IS INNER-CORE LIGHTNING AN INDICATOR OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION? Daniel J. Cecil, Texas A&M, College Station, TX.

P1.17

THE ROLE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY GENERATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINBANDS. Peter T. May and G. J. Holland BMRC, Melbourne, Australia.

P1.18

MULTIPLE DEVELOPMENT ASPECTS OF HURRICANE OPAL (1995). W. Edward Bracken, and L. F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY.

P1.19

ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION STAGE OF HURRICANE OPAL (1995) OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. Lance F. Bosart, W. E. Bracken and J. Molinari SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. S. Velden.

P1.20

SYNOPTIC-SCALE INTERACTIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AS DETERMINED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. Roger T. Edson, JTWC, Guam; and M. J. Andrews, M. A. Lander, and C. S. Velden.

P1.21

THE DIFFERING ROLES OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IN THE INTENSITY CHANGES OF RECENT ATLANTIC HURRICANES. Christopher W. Landsea, HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Kaplan and M. DeMaria.

P1.22

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIGNATURES IN THE CLIMATE. Jenni L. Evans, Penn. State Univ., University Park, PA.

P1.23

CLIMATOLOGICAL AND SYNOPTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. John Kaplan, HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria.

P1.24

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY, Raymond M. Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS/CIMMS, Fort Collins, CO.

P1.25

A COMPARISON OF THERMODYNAMIC AND EMPIRICAL MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITIES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State Univ, Columbys, OH.

P1.26

ROLE OF WARM OCEAN FEATURES ON INTENSITY CHANGE. Lynn Shay and G. Goni, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and F. Marks, J. Cione and P. Black.

P1.27

IMPACT OF AIR SEA INTERACTION ON HURRICANE OPAL (1995). Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. W. Chang, R. M. Hodur, and S. Raman.

P1.28

A VERIFICATION OF NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS OF SURFACE WIND SPEED RADII. Sam H. Houston, HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Lawrence, S. Spisak, and S. Murillo.

P1.29

SURFACE THERMODYNAMIC OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INNER CORE, Joseph J. Cione, HRD, Miami, FL.

P1.30

A PROPOSED SET OF NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND-PRESSURE RELATIONSHIPS APPLICABLE TO ALL BASINS. Charles P. Guard, and M. Lander, Univ. of Guam, Mangilao, GU; and P. G. Black.

P1.31

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY, Sim D. Aberson, HRD,

Miami, FL; and M.A.Bender and R.E.Tuleya.

5:00 P.M.

SESSIONS END FOR THE DAY Return to synopsis

THUR 15 JAN

9:30

COFFEE BREAK

10:00 a.m.

SESSION 4: INTERACTION WITH THE SEA (Invited Presentations). Chairperson: Jenni Evans, Penn. State Univ., University Park, PA.

10:00 a.m.

4.1 THEORETICAL AND NUMERICAL MODELING INFERENCES ON THE FEEDBACK OF OCEAN DYNAMICS ON HURRICANE INTENSITY. Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge MA.

10:30 a.m.

4.2 THE ROLE OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE: A MODELING PERSPECTIVE. Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI.

11:00 a.m.

4.3 OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE DUE TO AIR-SEA INTERACTION PROCESSES. Peter Black , HRD, Miami, FL.

11:30 a.m.

Discussion.

12:00-1:00 p.m.

LUNCH BREAK Return to synopsis

1:00 p.m.

SESSION 5: LATERAL INTERACTION WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ENVIRONMENT (Invited Presentations). Chairperson: W. M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO.

1:00 p.m.

5.1 HURRICANE-TROUGH INTERACTIONS: HOW DO THEY WORK? John Molinari, SUNY, Albany, NY.

1:30 p.m.

5.2 ON THE RELATIVE ROLES OF LATERAL INTERACTIONS AND THERMODYNAMICS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION. Greg Holland and Yuqing Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Australia.

2:00 p.m.

Discussion.

3:00 p.m.

COFFEE BREAK Return to synopsis

3:30 p.m.

SESSION 6: SUMMARY AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONSChairperson: W. Schubert, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO.

3:30 p.m

Discussion

5:30 p.m.

SPECIAL SESSION ENDS Return to synopsis

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