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Subject: G11) What is my chance of being struck by a tropical storm or hurricane?

Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC)

The figure here shows for any particular location what the chance is that a tropical storm or hurricane will affect the area sometime during the whole June to November hurricane season. We utilized the years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and counted hits when a storm or hurricane was within about 100 miles (165 km). This figure is created by Todd Kimberlain.

For example, people living in New Orleans, Louisiana have about a 40% chance (the green-orange color) per year of experiencing a strike by a tropical storm or hurricane. For the U.S., the locations that have the highest chances are the following: Miami, Florida - 48% chance; Cape Hatteras, North Carolina - 48% chance; and San Juan, Puerto Rico - 42% chance.

For any particular location the chance that a hurricane will directly affect the area sometime during the whole June to November hurricane season is shown here. We utilized the years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and counted hits when a hurricane was within about 60 miles (110 km). This figure is created by Todd Kimberlain. (For example, the chance for Miami, Florida is about 16%.)

For any particular location what the chance is that a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) will directly affect the area sometime during the whole June to November hurricane season is shown here. We utilized the years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and counted hits when a hurricane was within about 30 miles (50 km). This figure is created by Todd Kimberlain. (For example, the chance for Miami, Florida is about 4%.)

Many folks are are concerned about the possible impacts that a hurricane could have on their vacation. If so, please check with your hotel, cruise company, etc. to find out how they inform their guests when a hurricane is coming, what actions they plan and what refund policies they have (if any). Keep in mind that a direct hit by a major hurricane is an extremely rare event and if I had a chance - for example - to go on a cruise in the Caribbean Sea during hurricane season, I would go without hesitation.

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