Hurricane Synoptic Flow Experiment
Program Significance:
NHC estimates that hurricane preparation costs to the public
are well over $155,000 for each nautical mile of coastline
placed under a hurricane warning. Population levels in
hurricane-prone coastal areas of the United States have
increased dramatically over the past two decades. Similar
increases are likely to continue and the resultant cost for
hurricane preparedness will become even greater. Hurricane
warnings are usually issued 18 to 24 h before landfall for a
length of coastline averaging 300 nmi (555 km). The swath of
damaging winds and tides caused by hurricanes that strike land,
however, is generally less than 100 nmi (185 km). Thus,
hurricane preparation costs can be reduced if the average
errors associated with hurricane landfall forecasts are
decreased. Earlier research suggested that improved hurricane
track predictions can be achieved if accurate mid- and
low-level tropospheric data are available from the synoptic
environment around the storm, regions which typically have few
midtropospheric observations. The Hurricane Synoptic Flow
Experiment is designed to obtain these important observations
as hurricanes approach the U. S. coastline. The impact of data
from previous synoptic flow experiments has been evaluated
using VICBAR, HRD's experimental barotropic hurricane track
prediction model. Results show that the ODW data collected
from previous experiments are responsible for error reductions
of 12% to 16% in the 12 to 36 h forecast track. Similar
improvements have also recently been demonstrated in two
operational track models: NHC90 (a statistical-dynamical
model), and the QLM (a multilevel primitive equation dynamical
model). The ODWs have produced dramatic improvements, of up to
30%, in forecast tracks from NMC's Global Spectral model and
the new nested model developed by the NOAA Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).
Objectives:
The ultimate objective of this study is the improvement of
short range (24-36 h) hurricane track prediction. The
immediate requirement is the collection of three (additional)
data sets of mid- and low-tropospheric wind, thermodynamic, and
pressure-height data within 810 nmi. (1500 km) of hurricane
centers over oceanic regions. These data will be used by NHC
and NMC to prepare analyses and official forecasts and will be
incorporated in the objective statistical and dynamical
hurricane prediction models.
In a research mode, these data will be used to help determine
deployment strategies that maximize the impact of the data on
track forecasts. These data sets will also be used to study
the influence of synoptic-scale fields on changes in vortex
intensity and track and to assess methods for obtaining
atmospheric soundings with satellites.
Mission Description
Back to the Hurricane Field Program
Experiments page.